[分享] 今井達也、村上宗隆與岡本和真的市場狀況

Jeff Passan 寫的今年自由球員市場預覽

首先提到大聯盟的日本球員革命將會繼續，明年的挑戰者將會是今井達也、村上宗隆以及岡本和真

前提是他們的母隊同意讓他們入札

Imai, 27, is the most anonymous of the group -- and, according to scouts who have watched him pitch this year, perhaps the most intriguing. His talent belies his wispy 5-foot-11, 154-pound frame. He is the hardest-throwing starter in Japan, with a fastball that sits at 95 mph and tops out at 99. With a vicious slider,a changeup, a splitter, a curveball and a sinker he picked up this season, Imaihas the sort of pitch mix that teams covet.

27 歲的今井在這個群體中名氣最小，但根據本季觀察過他投球的球探評價，他或許是最令人著迷的一位。他的天賦遠超過那副瘦削的身材（5 呎 11 吋、154 磅）。他是日本職棒球速最快的先發投手，速球常態維持在95 英里，最快可達99 英里。搭配兇狠的滑球、變速球、指叉
球、曲球，以及本季新加入的伸卡球，今井的投球組合正是各球隊夢寐以求的類型。

Imai's numbers this year are silly: a 1.50 ERA with 159 strikeouts, 37 walks and just four home runs allowed in 143⅔ innings pitched. And although the dead ball in Japan certainly factors in, the quality of Imai's stuff supports his otherworldliness. The big league success of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga -- each an inch shorter than Imai -- has also helped allay fears of diminutive starters who have pervaded baseball for decades. Upward of 20 major league scouts were at his start Tuesday, when he punched out 10 in a two-hit shutout.

今井本季的數據驚人至極：在143.2局中繳出1.50的防禦率、159次三振、37次保送，僅被敲出4支全壘打。雖然日本使用低反彈球確實是影響因素之一，但今井球質之優異，足以支撐他那宛如異次元般的表現。而山本由伸與今永昇太的成功──這兩人都比今井矮一吋──也
進一步消除了長久以來對於矮小先發投手的疑慮。週二今井登板時，現場有超過20名大聯盟球探觀戰，他則以10次三振、被擊出僅2安打的完封勝作為回應。

With Imai flashing excellent control for the first time in his career, it wouldmake sense for the Saitama Seibu Lions to reap a hefty posting fee by allowing him to come to the majors now. Imai won't get the $325 million the Dodgers gave Yamamoto, but the combination of his age, performance and premier offerings havefront office officials offering gaudy predictions. One suggested Imai could getupward of $200 million, though others balked at that number. A second source said he thinks Imai will receive a $150 million contract. Another said something like Patrick Corbin's 2018 contract with the Washington Nationals -- six years, $140 million. The lowest number, among the dozen officials and scouts surveyed, was $80 million, which, with the desire for starting pitching and the number of years Imai should get because he'll be the youngest one on the market, feels light.

今井本季首次展現出極佳的控球能力，因此對西武獅而言，此時若允許他挑戰大聯盟，透過入札制度獲取可觀的費用，無疑是合理的選擇。雖然今井不太可能拿到道奇隊為山本由伸開出的3.25億美元大合約，但綜合年齡、表現與球路品質等因素，已讓許多大聯盟高層對他未來的身價做出驚人的預測。一位消息人士認為，今井可能會獲得超過2億美元的合約，不過也有人對此數字存疑。另一位來源則表示，他認為今井將簽下一份約 1.5億美元的合約。還有人拿Patrick Corbin在2018年與華盛頓國民隊簽下的6 年1.4 億美元合約來做類比。在受訪的十多位高層與球探中，最低的預估金額是8,000萬美元。但考量到大聯盟對先發投手的高度需求，以及今井將成為市場上最年輕的選項、因此合約年限勢必較長，這個數字顯然低估了。

The markets for Murakami and Okamoto aren't quite as defined. Murakami wanted to come to MLB last year but was not 25 years old and thus would have been subject to signing as an international amateur free agent, with a ceiling of around a $10 million payday. Now 25, he will likely be posted by the Yakult Swallows and has been scouted in person this season by New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns and San Diego Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, the latter of whom saw Murakami whack three home runs for the Swallows on Saturday (and was later at Imai's gem, too).

至於村上宗隆與岡本和真的市場則相對尚未明朗。村上去年就有意挑戰大聯盟，但因尚未滿 25 歲，只能以國際業餘自由球員身份簽約，簽約金最多大約僅有 1,000 萬美元。如今他已滿 25 歲，養樂多燕子隊很可能會將他送入入札制度。紐約大都會棒球事務總裁 David Stearns，以及聖地牙哥教士棒球事務總裁A.J. Preller今年都曾親自赴日觀察。值得一提的是，Preller週六親眼見證了村上單場轟出三支全壘打的驚人表現（之後他也去看了今井的代表作）。

In limited playing time this season due to injury, the 6-foot-2, 213-pound Murakami has displayed his prodigious left-handed power. In a league where there's ahome run every 60 plate appearances, Murakami has hit 15 in 138 -- one every 9.2 times up. Three years ago, Murakami smashed 56 homers, surpassing Sadaharu Oh's single-season home run record that had stood since 1964. For all the questionsabout Murakami's game -- he strikes out too much and he might need to shift to first base or a corner outfield spot -- the power is transoceanic.

村上宗隆的身高6呎2吋、體重213磅，本季因傷受限但仍展現了他驚人的左打長打火力。在一個平均每60個打席才出現一支全壘打的聯盟裡，村上138個打席就轟出15發全壘打，平均每9.2打席就有一支。三年前，他曾擊出56支全壘打，超越了1964年以來由王貞治保持的單季全壘打紀錄。雖然外界對他的能力仍有疑慮，像是過高的三振率，以及未來可能需要改守一壘或角落外野，但他的長打力量足以飛過太平洋。

Should Murakami continue his late-season power surge, the ceiling on his deal is even higher than Imai's. The last MLB player to reach free agency at 25 was Alex Rodriguez. Age matters significantly, and the prospect of getting any player's age 26 to 29 seasons is tantalizing -- particularly one of Murakami's caliber.

如果村上宗隆能持續他季末的長打火力，他的合約上限甚至可能超越今井。上一位在25歲進入大聯盟自由市場的球員是Alex Rodriguez。年齡在這裡意義重大，因為能簽下一名球員從26歲到29歲的黃金巔峰期，對任何球隊來說都極具吸引力，尤其是村上這等級的打者。

The 29-year-old Okamoto has been NPB's most consistent power hitter since joining the Yomiuri Giants full-time in 2018. While a left elbow injury sustained in a collision playing first base -- where, like Murakami, he could wind up -- sidelined him for 3½ months, Okamoto is leading NPB with a .314 batting average with nearly as many walks (21) as strikeouts (23) and 11 home runs in 201 plate appearances. He is regarded by evaluators as the biggest question mark to make the leap, and he's in line for a shorter-term deal than the others, but a contract for $50 million-plus is plenty realistic, especially with a September that proveshis elbow healed.

29歲的岡本和真，自 2018 年成為讀賣巨人隊正式先發以來一直是日職最穩定的長打火力來源。雖然他因為在一壘防守時發生碰撞，導致左手肘受傷而缺席了三個半月，但本季仍以 .314的打擊率暫居日職第一，在 201 個打席中保送（21）幾乎跟三振（23）一樣多，並且擊出11支全壘打。評估者普遍認為岡本在挑戰大聯盟的三人之中不確定性最大，因此可能會獲得比其他人更短的合約，但超過5,000萬美元的價碼相當現實，尤其是如果他在九月證明手肘已完全康復，將更能提升他的身價。

原文：https://bit.ly/46lMUW9

--