[分享] 村上宗隆的contact%分析

https://reurl.cc/VWKLdQ

Where these strikeouts become an issue is when transitioning from the NPB to MLB, where hitters will face much better pitching and harder velocity.

村上的三振問題會在從NPB轉戰MLB時浮現，因為打者將面對更強的投手與更高的球速

The average fastball in MLB sits between 94-95 MPH, whereas the average fastball in the NPB is closer to the 90-91 MPH range, a 4.4% decrease in average Whiff%for MLB hitters.

大聯盟平均球速94.5英里(152.1km)

而日職落在91.4英里（147.1km)

面對這兩種球速，對於大聯盟打者的平均揮空率差了4.4%

https://i.imgur.com/FpeO6wA.jpeg

90-91mph 大聯盟打者的平均揮空率14.3%
94-95 mph 大聯盟打者的平均揮空率18.7%

Murakami made contact at a slightly lower rate than Giancarlo Stanton this season while facing much slower fastballs, if you increase the fastball velocity he faces, you could also project an increase in Whiff%.

在面對更慢的球速下

村上今年的contact%比Giancarlo Stanto略低

而在面對大聯盟更快的球速下，可以預期其揮空率會再上升

This doesn’t factor for the discrepancies in breaking ball quality as well, which could result in even greater swing-and-miss woes for Murakami than the ones we already saw in Japan.

這裡並未考慮到變化球品質上的差異，而這一點可能會讓村上的揮空問題比他在日本時期所出現的情況更加嚴重

He’s only seen the swing-and-miss balloon as the years have gone on, and they create questions about whether opposing pitchers have figured out some bigger holes in his approach over the years.

隨著時間推進，他的揮空率只是不斷上升，這也引發了外界的疑問——對手投手是否在這些年之間逐漸找出了他打擊姿勢或策略上的重大弱點

Since 2020, 36 MLB hitters have recorded a Contact% at or below Murakami’s 63.9%, the median wRC+ for that group was a whopping 99.

村上今年Contact%是63.9%

自2020開始，有36位打者Contact%是63.9%或更低

他們的wRC+中位數是99

Only 12 of those seasons resulted in wRC+ above the average mark for a first baseman this season (107), and that’s the crux of my offensive concern here.

裡面僅12位wRC+有達到今年一壘手平均的107

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高風險高報酬啊

但推特轉一圈 岡本感覺是比較保險的選擇XD