[討論] win probability

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西門：76人時期球員年輕不懂怎麼贏球，籃網老將們知道比賽要一場一場打 Ben Simmons has found new life with the Brooklyn Nets this season. It seemed tha t his career was destined to fail after a disastrous playoff run in Philadelphia with the 76ers. He was all but shunned by most people, mocked for his play and actions. Now, though, Simmons is proving to everyone that he’s still a valuable

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AD：湖人有足夠的能力在今天跟未來贏球 Anthony Davis says the Lakers have enough to win "We got a great team, more than enough to go out and get wins together, more tha n enough to get a win tonight, more than enough to get a win tomorrow." AD說湖人隊有足夠的能力贏球 ：我們是一支出色的球隊，我們有足夠的能力一起去贏得勝

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Mike Beuoy, inpredictable.com的作者 也是一名精算師（Blue shield保險的副總裁） 這季球員的勝出機率(Win Probability) （不含11/8的比賽）

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不是說叫誰點或是點的技術的問題 是從數據面看 點就是一個降低得分期望值的方式 甚至在無人出局一壘有人點成一人出局二壘有人還會讓得分機率下降 也就是說不論何時在無人出局一壘有人都不應該點 即便在9下平手都不應該點

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今日表現：0.0IP 2H 2R 0ER 0BB 0K，投10顆球只有4顆好球 Holmes今天在2比0領先 ，一壘有人一人出局時登板 之後： 自己失誤（守護者win probability 15.9%） 一壘安打（守護者win probability 27.4%）

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Never. Give. Up. The @Dbacks had a 0.1% win probability in the top of the 9th 小蛇官方推特製圖開臭

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乳題 如果棒球比賽九下 兩隊平手 首名打者上三壘 無人出局 這樣贏球的機率大概多少 有沒有掛？？？

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推特上看到的 今天的天使跟昨天的太空人都是 The Astros had a 99% chance to win at one point on Saturday. They lost the game. The Angels had a 99% chance to win at one point on Sunday.