Re: [新聞] 美國3學者：賴清德應考慮凍結台獨黨綱

這一篇文章

Taiwan and the True Sources of Deterrence

Why America Must Reassure,
Not Just Threaten, China

By
Bonnie S. Glaser,
Jessica Chen Weiss,
Thomas J. Christensen

全文太長了自己點連結看：
https://reurl.cc/E1A0KK

其中這一段
For its part, Taiwan must accompany needed measures to bolster its defense with credible assurances to Beijing that as long as the Chinese military refrains from attacking Taiwan, Taipei will not pursue independence or permanent separation. Taiwan should refrain from potentially provocative actions, such as holding a referendum to change its official name, the Republic of China, or revising its territorial claims to exclude mainland China—changes that would indicate a declaration of formal independence.
Regardless of who is elected Taiwan’s next president, Taipei will need to convincingly reassure Beijing that it has no intention of fundamentally altering the status quo. But the need for such guarantees will grow in the event of the victory of Lai, the DPP candidate; Chinese officials deeply mistrust him since he has endorsed the pursuit of formal independence for Taiwan in the past. The pledge that Lai made, in an October 2023 speech in Taipei at a dinner attended by nearly 100 foreign dignitaries
and guests, to maintain Tsai’s cross-strait policy, with its emphasis on refusing both to bow to Chinese pressure and to provoke Beijing, is a good start. If elected, Lai could use his inaugural address to reaffirm the commitments Tsai made in her inaugural speech in 2016 to conduct cross-strait affairs in accordance with the Republic of China’s constitution and the 1992 act governing relations between the two sides of the strait, Taipei’s law on how the island should manage relations with Beijing.

As Taiwan strengthens its military deterrent—including by increasing its ability to withstand a blockade and to defeat an invading Chinese force—it must also implement additional measures to reinforce the credibility of its assurances. In August, Lai took a step in the right direction when he made his stance on the naming question clear: “President Tsai has used the term Republic of China (Taiwan) to describe our country. I will continue to do so in the future.” This and other statements provide
China with rhetorical assurance, but because his party’s 1991 charter still calls for the creation of a “Republic of Taiwan” and a new constitution, doubts persist in Beijing about his willingness to hold to this position as president. If he wins the election, Lai should consider revisiting a proposal made by DPP legislators in 2014 to suspend the independence clause in the 1991 party charter, a nonbinding and reversible step that would give any rhetorical commitment to the status quo more weight and
credibility. Such a step could also be part of a gradual, reciprocal process to reduce tensions and build trust, as advocated by Richard Bush, the former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan.

Just as the United States must not rule out the possibility of an eventual peaceful integration of the two sides of the strait (as long as such a move has the assent of the people of Taiwan), Taipei should also not take actions that would permanently foreclose that outcome. To deter war, Taiwan must allow leaders in Beijing to believe that peaceful unification remains possible.

就台灣而言，在採取必要措施加強防禦的同時，也必須向北京做出可靠保證，即只要中國軍隊不攻擊台灣，台北就不會追求獨立或永久分離。

台灣應避免採取潛在的挑釁性行動，例如舉行公投以更改其正式名稱“中華民國”，或修改其領土主張以將中國大陸排除在外，這些變化將表明正式宣布獨立。

無論誰當選台灣下一任總統，台北都需要令人信服地向北京保證，它無意從根本上改變現狀。

但如果民進黨候選人賴清德獲勝，對此類保證的需求將會增加；中國官員對他深感不信任，因為他過去曾支持台灣尋求正式獨立。

2023 年 10 月，賴在台北舉行的有近 100 名外國政要和嘉賓出席的晚宴上發表講話，承諾維持蔡英文的兩岸政策，強調拒絕屈服於中國壓力和挑釁北京。這是一個好的開始。

如果當選，賴可以在就職演說中重申蔡英文在2016年就職演說中的承諾，即按照中華民國憲法和1992年兩岸關係條例、台北市政府處理兩岸事務。關於台灣如何處理與北京關係的法律。

隨著台灣加強其軍事威懾，包括提高其抵禦封鎖和擊敗入侵的中國軍隊的能力，它還必須採取更多措施來增強其保證的可信度。

8月，賴清德在命名問題上明確表態，朝著正確的方向邁出了一步：「蔡總統用中華民國（台灣）這個詞來形容我們的國家。

今後我也會繼續這樣做。”o項聲明和其他聲明為中國提供了口頭上的保證，但由於台灣1991年的黨章仍然呼籲建立「台灣共和國」和一部新憲法，北京方面仍然對他是否願意擔任總統這一職位表示懷疑。如果賴贏得選舉，他應該考慮重新審視民進黨立委2014年提出的暫停1991年黨章中的獨立條款的提議，這是一個不具約束力和可逆的步驟，將使任何對現狀的口頭承諾更具分量和可信度。正如美國在台協會前主席理查德·布希所倡導的那樣，這一步驟也可能是緩和緊張局勢、建立信任的漸進互惠進程的一部分。

正如美國不能排除兩岸最終和平融合的可能性（只要這一舉動得到台灣人民的同意），台北也不應該採取永久排除台灣的行動。那個結果。為了阻止戰爭，台灣必須讓北京領導人相信和平統一仍然是可能的。

全文很長

聯合報提的是這段

--