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[外絮] Sam Vecenie版2024屆百大新秀

看板NBA標題[外絮] Sam Vecenie版2024屆百大新秀作者
EZ78
(EZ78)
時間推噓30 推:30 噓:0 →:71

https://reurl.cc/Oj97D9

I’ve been waiting to release a 2024 NBA Draft Big Board, largely because
this draft class remains so uncertain. The 2024 draft is seen as the most
questionable one at the top in more than a decade. NBA teams are struggling
to pinpoint the kind of prospect whose value is commensurate with that of a
usual top-five pick.

Right now, I wouldn’t take any player in this class in the top four of the
2022 draft or the top five of the 2023 draft, and I still would not classify
any with a Tier One or Tier Two grade. Because of that, the order these
players will be selected remains extremely up in the air. It’s not an
exaggeration to say any player (outside of one) ranked in the top nine of
this board could end up going No. 1.

我(Vecenie)等了一陣子才發出2024年NBA選秀的百大新秀榜,主要還是因為這屆的不確定性太高了。2024選秀是我十數年來看過有最多疑慮的一屆。NBA球隊還在想辦法找出能與前五順位價值相符的潛力。

現階段而言,我不會將這屆的任何球員與2022的Top 4(Paolo, Chet, JSJ, Ivey)或是2023的Top 5(Wemby, Miller, Scoot, Thompson Bros)相提並論,我也還不會選出Tier 1或2。因此,這些球員被選的順序仍懸而不決。不誇張的說,除了某一名球員以外,前9名的任何一位都有可能會是狀元。

And yet, this class is also an incredibly fun one to break down. It’s an
eye-of-the-beholder draft, and scouts are working hard to determine where
value can be had. There are players not ranked on this board who will emerge
over the course of the season and end up being drafted. This is just a
snapshot of where we’re at a quarter of the way through the regular season
— with myriad potential outcomes still on the board.

My goal right now is to identify guys I think have a good chance to play in
the NBA for a reasonable amount of time. I’m thinking less in terms of
upside, and more in terms of their chances of becoming strong rotation
players. You’ll notice I placed an emphasis on prospects who really know how
to play and have elite feel for the game. Another important factor I value,
even more than in previous years, is each prospect’s ability to impact the
game when they don’t have the ball. Because it’s difficult to pinpoint
exactly which guys have potential to be on-ball creators, placing an emphasison those who are effective without the ball seems like the best way to get
value out of a class that evaluators believe lacks top-end talent.

但是,這一屆分析起來是非常有趣的。這是給旁觀者的選秀,而球探正在努力找出他們的價值。這裡一定會有球員不在這個榜上卻能逐漸爬上來並被選中。這只是例行賽過了1/4之後的一個縮影---而很多潛力還沒展現。

我現在的目標是想要分出一些能有好機會在NBA拿到一定上場時間的球員。我比較不會去思考上限(反觀隔壁棚Givony XD),我比較多在考慮他們成為強力輪替的機會。你會發現我把重心放在那些有菁英等級的比賽感覺的球員與很會打比賽的球員。另一個我比過去幾年更加重視的因子是潛力球星們手中沒有球而能改變比賽的能力。因為實在是很難準確的總結球員是否有持球創造的能力,將重心放在那些即使手中沒有球卻還能有效打球的球員看起來是能估算出這屆被認為沒有頂級天賦的球員價值。

This is a year when I somewhat regret not working for a team, since I would
only be responsible for having to select a couple of players as opposed to
having something of an opinion on 100.

A few other quick notes:

Eleven of the top 33 players here are either playing for G League Ignite or
overseas. This NCAA class is not particularly strong with NBA prospects rightnow.

This does not look to be a good class of guards, outside of a couple guys I
have near the top. Scouts are hoping players like Providence’s Garwey Dual,
North Carolina’s Elliot Cadeau, Duke’s Jared McCain and Caleb Foster and
others emerge further.

Speaking of freshmen: At this stage of the process, as is true every year, I
do not include freshmen that’d be ranked outside of the top 50. I’m
extremely intrigued with all of those four players above, in addition to guyssuch as Aden Holloway (Auburn), Andrej Stojakovic(Stanford), Jackson
Shelstad (Oregon), Elmarko Jackson (Kansas), Jarin Stevenson (Alabama),
Scotty Middleton (Ohio State), K.J. Lewis (Arizona), JoJo Tugler (Houston),
Malik Mack (Harvard) and plenty others. But I will be more patient with them,given how little time they’ve logged at this level.

今年我有點後悔沒有為一支球隊工作,因為我只負責選擇幾個球員,而不是對 100 名球員發表意見。

一些要注意的事情:

這裡排名前 33 的球員中有 11 人在 G League Ignite 或海外效力。目前 NCAA出產的NBA潛力沒有特別強。

這屆後衛除了一些接近頂端的以外看起來是後衛不太行的一屆。球探正在希望一些像是
Providence的Garwey Dual、北卡的Elliot Cadeau、杜克的Jared McCain和Caleb Foster和一些其他人可以再進一步。

談到大一生:在這個階段,每年都是這樣,我不太把排名前50以外的大一生排進來。除了上述四人以外我也有興趣的還有Aden Holloway(Auburn)、Andrej Stojakovic(Stanford、Peja之子)、Jackson Shelstad (Oregon)、Elmarko Jackson (Kansas)、Jarin Stevenson(Alabama)、Scotty Middleton (Ohio State)、K.J. Lewis (Arizona)、JoJo Tugler
(Houston)、Malik Mack (Harvard)等等等。但我會對他們更有耐心並等他們進入新的層級一段時間以後。

Finally, a few quick thoughts on how I build this thing. First, it does not
take team fit into account. It goes without saying that the Boston Celtics’
board will look different from the Phoenix Suns’ board based on the schemes
they run and the positions in which they need depth. I do give a bit of a
bump to players who I think will be successful in multiple schemes. I also
tend to give a bump to guys who seem to be winning players that can defend
multiple positions, play well within a team defensive concept, knock down
shots and play with great processing speed. The latter quality is the most
important one for non-stars to have for NBA playoff success.

Second, I get input and information from NBA executives, college coaches,
agents, scouts and other evaluators during the process of slotting players.
Sometimes, those exchanges are about a prospect’s background and off-court
habits. Sometimes, they’re about his work ethic. Other times, they’re just
conversations about whether we think a guy can play or who they might compareto in the NBA. These conversations happen daily, but at the end of the day,
this is my ranking. While it is reflective of the general tenor of NBA teams,it’s not a consensus board either.

最後,這裡是一些我怎麼寫出這東西的。第一,我不考慮隊伍適性。波士頓賽爾提克與鳳凰城太陽因為需求與深度的原因會用不同的角度看選秀是廢話。我會給那些可以在多種情況下取得成功的新秀多一些肯定。我也傾向於給那些可以1守到5、高防守適性、投進球與能快速反應的球員更多肯定。後者是非球星球原想在NBA季後賽取得成功最重要的價值。

第二,我從NBA管理層、大學教練、球探與一些其他評價者取得資訊。有時我們會聊球員的背景與場下習慣。有時,我們會聊工作態度。其他時間可能就只是覺得他能不能打或是他可能可以跟NBA的誰做對比。這些對話天天都在發生,但這終究是我的排名。雖然他會反映出一些NBA廣泛的想法,這依然不是個大家有共識的榜單。

1. Isaiah Collier
2. Nikola Topic
3. Alexandre Sarr
4. Zaccharie Risacher
5. Cody Williams
6. Reed Sheppard (PS 最近他的名字被提及的次數真的越來越多)
7. Ja'Kobe Walter
8. Ron Holland
9. Matas Buzelis
10. Ryan Dunn
11. Stephon Castle
12. Oso Ighodaro
13. Donovan Clingan
14. Justin Edwards
15. Robert Dillingham
16. Dalton Knecht
17. Trey Alexander
18. Tyler Smith
19. Kyle Filipowski
20. Kobe Johnson
21. Izan Almansa
22. Bub Carrington
23. Tyrese Proctor
24. Adem Bona
25. Terrence Shannon Jr.
26. Tyler Kolek
27. Kevin McCullar
28. Bobi Klintman
29. Melvin Ajinca
30. Ajay Mitchell
31. Tristan da Silva
32. D.J. Wagner
33. Alex Toohey
34. Tidjane Salaun
35. Zach Edey
36. Kel'el Ware
37. Terrance Arceneaux
38. Desmond Claude
39. Wooga Poplar
40. Jaylon Tyson
41. Hunter Sallis
42. Yves Missi
43. Elliot Cadeau
44. Aaron Bradshaw
45. Milan Momcilovic
46. Trevon Brazile
47. Alex Karaban
48. Baba Miller
49. Aday Mara
50. Kylan Boswell
51. P.J. Hall
52. Riley Kugel
53. Ariel Hukporti
54. Ryan Kalkbrenner
55. Harrison Ingram
56. Baylor Scheierman
57. Juan Nunez
58. Tyon Grant-Foster

(今年因為一樣只有58順位我就先列到這了 The Athletics的表格很難複製= =)

下面的球探報告看我心情再看要不要翻XD

Vecenie版本的跟Givony版本的除了狀元以外差距超級大也足見這次選秀有多混沌

Vecenie版本的基本上G League Ignite因為那隊真的打太爛全部都往後噴了lol

--

※ PTT 留言評論
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 98.217.185.18 (美國)
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※ 編輯: EZ78 (98.217.185.18 美國), 12/06/2023 21:34:53

nt880245 12/06 21:34馬刺預定狀元

love1500274 12/06 21:45Zach Edey不知道還有沒有機會往上衝一下

EZ78 12/06 21:46我覺得他35已經是非常高了

xo45527788 12/06 21:46像2013年?

EZ78 12/06 21:47而且你要他表現再更好嗎?他現在已經在大學大屠殺了

Myosotis 12/06 21:47Givony他對國際球員的平均評價會高於Vecenie一些

EZ78 12/06 21:47(雖然還是輸給西北XD)

pp787753 12/06 21:48假科比 魔仙小子

Myosotis 12/06 21:48Givony他有比較多親自出國去實地考察海外球員的機會

EZ78 12/06 21:48因為國際球員不確定性更高吧 而且Givony是真的很愛

EZ78 12/06 21:48看upside

Myosotis 12/06 21:49西班牙金童 Juan Nunez 兩人評價一個首輪一個二輪尾

EZ78 12/06 21:49我記得Vecenie是跑美國+澳洲比較多

liefuchen 12/06 21:50Cody直接起飛 原本掉很慘

EZ78 12/06 21:50Imansa差距也超大啊 一個樂透 一個噴到首輪尾lol

EZ78 12/06 21:50Almansa*

Myosotis 12/06 21:51這季一大堆脫歐跑來美國讀NCAA的 但發展不是很順利

Myosotis 12/06 21:51Vecenie住澳洲的樣子 所以NBL他相對比較熟悉

Myosotis 12/06 21:52Vecenie的版本 NCAA球員比較吃香

EZ78 12/06 21:52與其說脫歐 其實更多好像都是去年就在OTE打

Myosotis 12/06 21:53有幾隻高年級的在2023榜單是落選或者沒出現在雷達內

EZ78 12/06 21:53OTE收了蠻多外國人 然後他們打到18就直升NCAA了

Myosotis 12/06 21:53但2024中有被他注意到並拉拔到首輪行情

Myosotis 12/06 21:54沒喔 我不是說OTE的 我是說上季還在海外今年+NCAA

EZ78 12/06 21:55但我自己是對Vecenie的榜單評價比Givony高不少就是

Petyr 12/06 21:55topic我刺要了 別搶

Myosotis 12/06 21:55UCLA 和 Arizona 在國際招生這方面就是名列前茅的

EZ78 12/06 21:55@@ 我自己是球員來到美國才會開始關注

Myosotis 12/06 21:56Aday Mara, Berke Buyuktuncel, Jan Vide

EZ78 12/06 21:56UCLA這幾屆招生是真的比以前強蠻多的

Myosotis 12/06 21:57Motiejus Krivas, Paulius Murauskas 兩隻都立陶宛

Myosotis 12/06 21:58Givony 感覺比較有立場 我覺得他對 Ignite 捧過高

Myosotis 12/06 21:59當然不管怎麼看仍然都還是業界頂尖的專業人士

EZ78 12/06 22:00這是當然的 他們兩個在怎麼樣都是業界中最穩的了

EZ78 12/06 22:00只是他們兩個看球員的角度有不小的差異在

EZ78 12/06 22:01過去幾年到選前印象中兩個人榜單差距不會到誇張的大

tim19990312 12/06 22:01排的比Givony好

EZ78 12/06 22:01Combine竄出的人人選也都很貼近現實

tim19990312 12/06 22:02但kel'el太低 基本上他是這屆除了sarr最好的長人

tim19990312 12/06 22:02然後Holland最終還會是前三的

tim19990312 12/06 22:03Tidjane Salaun也會進樂透

tim19990312 12/06 22:04Ruben Pery依舊不見蹤影

havest 12/06 22:07有大大可以分享Aday Mara怎麼掉到這麼低嗎

Kazmier 12/06 22:08Reed Sheppard 不知會不會長成Herro

ACEric2173 12/06 22:08Topic 很香

EZ78 12/06 22:08他在UCLA打的時間不是很多

Kazmier 12/06 22:09kel'el Ware 有像Lively

Kazmier 12/06 22:10都一樣五星高中生中鋒

e6707122000 12/06 22:10依Spoelstra眼光,很期待熱火明年的選秀會挑哪位。

richard1003 12/06 22:10超級小年,大家都在關注25梯了

EZ78 12/06 22:10其實小年我覺得更有趣

Kazmier 12/06 22:11但Ware大一打得更爛 轉學後進大二步不少

EZ78 12/06 22:12不過也有可能是因為我會開始認真看選秀也是21跟22

Myosotis 12/06 22:12Ruben Pery 之前CJB有傷兵的時候才比較多上場機會

EZ78 12/06 22:12的緣故吧lol

CRChen 12/06 22:12事後位 ?

tim19990312 12/06 22:13ware大一根本沒上場時間 他去對學校選秀順位會比liv

tim19990312 12/06 22:13ely高 當然lively被選到後神一般的學習能力又是後

tim19990312 12/06 22:13話了

Myosotis 12/06 22:14你的大家是 "小年跳過不看 大年拼命跟風" 這種人嗎?

※ 編輯: EZ78 (98.217.185.18 美國), 12/06/2023 22:15:01

EZ78 12/06 22:15Lively其實OnD時也被說疑慮挺高啦

EZ78 12/06 22:15他大學表現真的不算太好

EZ78 12/06 22:16只是他後面把自己順位越打越高也繳出符合的表現

tim19990312 12/06 22:17當初lively在杜克訓練營根本像個不會打球的笨拙老

tim19990312 12/06 22:17

tim19990312 12/06 22:17他是打完後才升的吧 球探對原始天賦還是挺看重的

tim19990312 12/06 22:18而且去年也沒其他好中鋒了

EZ78 12/06 22:18就 後面基本上都在買他的天賦股我印象中

EZ78 12/06 22:18然後也真的是中鋒超小年 根本沒有其他競爭者

mhkt 12/06 22:20呃 Stojakovic才對

YellowTiger 12/06 22:20這屆選秀是真的亂

mhkt 12/06 22:20不是Stojakivic...

謝 我打錯

※ 編輯: EZ78 (98.217.185.18 美國), 12/06/2023 22:21:03

mhkt 12/06 22:20幫你挑錯一下

mhkt 12/06 22:2324年真的亂 ... 很難挑出哪位篤定能狀元欸

tim19990312 12/06 22:27目前我應該會Holland或Sarr擇一

tim19990312 12/06 22:27前者可能領先一點 因為creation upside

vvvv0o0vvvv 12/06 22:36快艇能幫我雷坦個Cody嗎 跟哥哥一起打兄弟籃球

EZ78 12/06 22:36我之前跟我雷迷朋友開玩笑說要不要打兄弟籃球 他說

kkl522608 12/06 22:36這屆真的有點亂,也比較少追,可能再晚一點直接惡

kkl522608 12/06 22:37補大補帖了

EZ78 12/06 22:37不可能 結果現在真的要成真了

tim19990312 12/06 22:37樓上隊上另一位的弟弟也該順便吧

pneumo 12/06 22:37翻譯推

EZ78 12/06 22:37另一位的弟弟太難了吧XDDDDDDDDD

vvvv0o0vvvv 12/06 22:38欸對欸 Sarr的哥哥好像也在雷霆 笑死

yen5642 12/06 22:52對dalton knecht有在關注,高中沒星從njcaa一路打

yen5642 12/06 22:53上來的

tyrone0923 12/06 23:03明年目前來看真的相對混亂,拿狀元跟拿第5順位感覺

tyrone0923 12/06 23:03差別不大

sampsonlu91912/06 23:21芝加哥惡徒Terrence Shannon Jr終於要進NBA了

EZ78 12/06 23:22他已經要選秀第三次了吧XDD 堪比Jalen Johnson的轉

EZ78 12/06 23:22學次數

jack34031 12/06 23:25看到Ajinca,果然和以前鵜鶘那個有關係

foolishbi 12/07 00:07最近幾屆中鋒樂透 好像都很少人

tyrone0923 12/07 00:22現在中鋒在NBA不吃香阿,除非是那種天賦異稟的

tyrone0923 12/07 00:22不然寧願找大型側翼,搞不好偶而還可兼小球五號

stesome 12/07 00:22這屆一輪秀有好多白人,難怪被說2024是小年

TomasMao 12/07 01:35推勇者翻譯(等著吃瓜

hasroten 12/07 02:49中鋒要嘛就要強的離譜 不然就綠葉

jeff800125 12/07 07:04DJ好慘

kenkuo1688 12/07 08:09小年