[外絮] Vecenie球探報告(續)--Collier與Sheppard

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作者:Sam Vecenie

Isaiah Collier | 6-4 guard | freshman | USC | No. 1
Collier is the name most scouts and executives provide when I ask who they
have at No. 1 right now. I think I agree with that assessment for now due to
his upside, but I also want to see tangible growth throughout the season.

Collier是Vecenie最常從各個管理層人員與球探中得到現階段的第一名。我(Vecenie)同意他現有的評價是來源於他的上限，但我也想要在這季看到他明確的成長。

First though, the good. Collier’s intersection of quickness and strength
allows him to play in the paint with ease. Once he gets to the rim, he’s
able to not just absorb contact, but oftentimes rise up through it to finish
with strength at the rim. He’s a power guard, typically attempting to go
through defenders at the rim. It’d be wrong to call him an elite leaper, but
he uses his strength and length well functionally. Yet it doesn’t (always)
feel like he’s just bullying smaller players, because he can pass and make
plays for his teammates even if they don’t always finish. In USC’s recent
loss to Gonzaga, I counted 16 potential Collier assists, with the Trojans
only converting six of them. Many of those looks were
high-degree-of-difficulty kick-outs or dump-offs from a live dribble. Collieris averaging 17.3 points, 4.5 assists and 3.0 rebounds, making him one of themost productive freshmen in the country, and I expect the assist number to
rise as USC hits conference play, as he’s been snake-bitten by teammates
missing shots. On top of that, Collier’s jumper from distance has looked
better this season, as he’s made 40 percent of his 3s to this point.

第一段先講優點。Collier速度與力量的結合容許他能輕鬆在禁區打球。只要他能接近籃框，他不只能吸收衝擊還能常常用他的力量完成終結。他是個強力後衛並時常在籃下解決防守者。他可能不是最菁英的跳跳人，但他能很好的運用他的力量與長度。而且他不僅僅是一直霸凌比他更小隻的對手而已因為他即使不能終結仍可以傳球為隊友創造機會。在南加大輸給Gonzaga的比賽中，我算到Collier總共有16個潛在助攻，而特洛伊人卻只能轉換出其中的6個。很多看起來都是高難度的球轉傳出來或是運球中給球。Collier目前場均17.3分4.5助攻3.0籃板並讓他成為全國產能最高的新鮮人隻一，而我期望他的助攻數字能隨著南加大進行賽區內的比賽時升高因為他現階段很多都被隊友投不進而吃掉了。Collier的長距離跳投這季也看起來更好了，他現在有40%的三分球命中率。

But there are significant concerns, both in how Collier is being used and in
his own performance. Let’s start with the latter. Collier is a chronic
over-penetrator, constantly so deep into the lane that he leaves himself no
options when the defense collapses on him. That leads to a lot of wasted
possessions, which is why he is averaging a robust 4.6 turnovers per game –
a ludicrous number that will need to come down if he’s to justify going No.
1. His ball security has improved in the last two games, as he only turned
the ball over five times combined against Eastern Washington and Gonzaga. Buthe desperately needs to improve his patience as a driver and be willing to
hang out in the midrange for a beat longer.

但Collier仍有顯著的疑慮，無論是Collier的使用方式還是他本身的表現。先從後者說起。Collier是個常常過度深切的人，他經常會切得太深並限縮他自己的選項陷入包夾。這讓他浪費了不少球權，這也是他場均4.6失誤的因素--這是對他是否是狀元是個非常昂貴的數字。他過去兩場在保護球上有進步，也因此他在對東華盛頓大學與Gonzaga的比賽中加總只有5次失誤。但他非常需要改善他做為切入者的耐心與花更多時間在中距離的意願。

USC is also contributing to the problem by running inverted actions that
result in Collier posting up smaller guards, a bizarre structural decision
that has not led to much success. USC does not typically have enough shootingto allow Collier to get the space he needs when drop-stepping or spinning to
the rim. Because the Trojans consistently deploy two players opponents don’t
worry about from the perimeter, there’s always help waiting at the basket.
Andy Enfield gets a bad rap — he’s the winningest coach in USC history and
has led them to seven 20-plus win seasons in the last eight years — but I can’t logically wrap my head around this offensive alignment.

南加大的戰術也是給他問題的因素之一，他們的inverted actions(就是讓非典型的位置去做一些工作，像是後衛擋人之類的)時常最終變成Collier在低位單打比他小隻的後衛，而這個結構性的決定沒有獲得太多的成功。南加大通常並沒有夠好的投籃允許Collier有足夠的空間去做Drop Step或是轉身。因為特洛伊人經常會上2位對手根本不需要擔心他外線的球員造成籃下都會有補防等著他。Andy Anfield名聲在外--他是南加大隊史最多勝場的教練還讓他過去8年有7年都超過20勝--但我無法用邏輯理解他的進攻安排。

Collier has not exhibited many issues getting to the rim this season, and I
find his touch and comfort to be much better when he’s playing downhill and
getting all the way to the basket. The Trojans’ offense looks better when he
’s attacking in ball screens, even if turnovers have also been an issue for
him there. Though I have Collier ranked No. 1 right now, I wouldn’t have had
him in my top eight of last season’s draft class to this point. But as a
lead creator who can pass, has some shooting potential and can consistently
get into the paint, I think he represents the highest-upside player in the
class as of this moment.

Collier在接近籃框方面沒有甚麼問題，而我發現他從中線切入並接近籃框時他的手感與舒適度都好上許多。他過掩護之後的進攻即使失誤很多也讓特洛伊人的進攻看起來更好了。雖然我現階段將Collier排在第一，我甚至不會將他排在去年的前8名。但作為一個可以傳球的持球手有著投籃的潛力且能穩定的打入禁區，我認為他現階段是本屆上限最高的球員。

Reed Sheppard | 6-3 guard | freshman | Kentucky | No. 6

This is the eye-opener of the board. Sheppard has, in my opinion, clearly
been the best freshman in college basketball thus far. In terms of deriving
value for his team, I don’t think it’s all that close. So it was hard to
rank him much lower than this.

這是我的榜單最能讓人大開眼界的東西(Sheppard原本僅是4星高中生，且才大一)。
Sheppard在我眼裡是現階段大學籃球最好的新鮮人。尤其是在對隊伍的貢獻上。所以我很難再把他排更低了。

Despite coming off the bench to start the season, Sheppard has been
phenomenal every moment he’s been on the court. He is averaging 13.9 points,
3.8 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 1.1 blocks and 3.0 steals in 26 minutes per
contest. Kentucky’s last two games are the first in which he’s cracked 30
minutes in each, and he averaged 23 points, seven rebounds and five assists
while playing more consistently on the ball. More importantly, Kentucky is
consistently a drastically better team with him on the floor, as his
plus-minus jumps off the page every game.

盡管他開季板凳出發，Sheppard上場的每一刻都令人驚艷。他在26分鐘的上場時間內場均13.9分3.8助攻4.2籃板1.1火鍋與3.0抄截。肯塔基過去兩場才讓他上場超過30分鐘並讓他在有球的情況下打出場均23分7籃板5助攻。最重要的是，肯塔基在他在場時經常都是更好的隊伍，他也有著很出色的+/-值。

Sheppard is such an appealing bet at this point because of his combination ofelite shooting, plus skill and elite feel for the game. Sheppard is one of
those players who seems to anticipate things before they happen, allowing himto make decisions faster than everyone. He nails hit-ahead passes to start
critical transition opportunities and makes quick reversal passes to keep thedefense in rotation. If you leave him open within 25 feet of the rim, the
ball is going up, and it’s probably going in. If you go under one of his
dribble handoffs, the ball is going up and through the rim.

因為Sheppard菁英級別的投籃、技巧與比賽感覺的組合，他現在是非常吸引人的賭局。
Sheppard似乎是那群可以預見場上事情的那群球員之一並讓他可以做出比任何人都快的決策。他可以快速向前導傳啟動關鍵的快攻機會也可以快速回傳來進行輪轉。如果你讓他在25英尺的距離有空檔他就會直接投籃並大機率命中。如果你在他手遞手的時候走under，他也會直接投籃懲罰你並命中。

So far, Sheppard has made 61 percent of his 4.5 3-point attempts per game.
That rate won’t continue, but he’s definitely an elite shooter off the
catch with the look of a 40-plus percent NBA 3-point shooter. Over the last
two games, he’s showcased an ability to run Kentucky’s offense and play
with the ball in his hands. Defensively, he’s always in passing lanes and
makes timely rotations, with an impeccable sense of anticipation and
unbelievable hand-eye coordination.

目前來說，Sheppard能在他每場4.5次的3分出手命中61%。這個命中率當然不會維持，但他絕對是菁英級別的接球射手且看起來像40%以上命中率的NBA三分球射手。過去兩場他展現出他有球時運轉肯塔基進攻的能力。防守上，他永遠都在傳球線上並做出及時的輪轉，並有著無可挑剔的預判能力和令人難以置信的手眼協調。

But the obvious questions here are real. Sheppard is listed at 6 foot 3, but
doesn’t quite look that tall. He’s also not overly long. These measurements
have led to defensive questions, both in terms of how his skills translate tothe next level and his on-ball capabilities. UNC Wilmington actually hunted
him a bit late in their upset win over Kentucky this past weekend.
Athletically, Sheppard isn’t particularly shifty when trying to elude
defenders and separate from his man on the ball. As a shooter, he’s been
much more of a stand-still guy as opposed to a player flying off movement andcreating his own opportunities. His set of skills isn’t perfect yet.

但他有明顯的疑慮是真的。Sheppard紙面上身高僅有6尺3吋，實際上甚至看起來沒那麼高。他的身長也沒有甚麼優勢。這些身材問題造就了他的防守疑慮，無論是他的技巧是否能轉換上NBA還是對球防守能力上。北卡大學威名頓分校就在他們上周末逆襲肯他基的比賽中針對他打點。體能上來說，Sheppard在試圖閃避防守者或是阻止他的對手拿球時上並沒有特別靈活。作為射手，他比較多是定點射手而非能自行創造機會的跑動射手。他的技能組尚不完全。

Sheppard is a polarizing player for scouts, and people in front offices are
having trouble finding a point of comparison for his game. At the high end,
stars like Stephen Curry and Trae Young have similar size, shooting and
processing profiles, but Sheppard’s ballhandling is nowhere near their
level. Tyrese Haliburton is bigger and has always been a better passer.
Tyrese Maxey is way faster. Jalen Brunson has always possessed an elite levelof craft and footwork that Sheppard hasn’t displayed quite yet. Moving
outside of the All-Star group, Austin Reaves is bigger than Sheppard, while
Desmond Bane is built like a truck. Sheppard is more skilled than a player
like De’Anthony Melton, who racked up blocks and steals as a guard, and he’
s a better shooter than Tyus Jones. But he isn’t as good defensively right
now as someone like Alex Caruso, nor is he that much better offensively at
this stage despite being more gifted with the ball in his hands. Luke Kennardhas come up a few places, but Kennard didn’t produce defensively at Sheppard
’s level, nor did he showcase as much on-ball ability. JJ Redick has also
come up as a Sheppard comparison (he was a sneaky elite steals accumulator atDuke), but he played far more off the ball and was an elite shooter off
movement. There isn’t really an NBA archetype for Sheppard right now.

Shppard在球探眼中是兩極的存在且管理層人員找不到NBA有跟他相近的人。往上看，像是Stephen Curry與Trae Young雖然有相近的身材、投射與決策能力。但Sheppard的運球能力跟他們相去甚遠。Tyrese Haliburton更大隻且是更好的傳球者。Tyrese Maxey快非常多。Jalen Brunson有著菁英等級的靈活性與腳步但Shppard從未展現過這些。撇開全明星看，Austin Reaves更大隻，Desmond Bane的身材就是一台卡車。Sheppard又比De'Anthony
Melton這種能抄截與蓋火鍋的球員更有技巧且他投籃也比Tyus Jones好上許多。他防守並不像Alex Caruso這種球員這麼好但他現在也在進攻端持球能力比這些人同期好上許多。Luke Kennard是有些人提過的人選，但Kennard的防守與Sheppard不在同一個等級上也沒展現過對球防守。JJ Reddick也被拿來作為Sheppard的模板之一(他在杜克時抄截能力很強)，但他無球能力與菁英的跑動射手能力又不一樣。現階段的NBA並沒有Sheppard接近的原型模板。

Still, everything Sheppard does well is at a premium in today’s NBA. Only a
few front-office executives have told me they are quite this high on
Sheppard, but many more said they’d have a hard time seeing him picked
outside the lottery. Others view him as more of a mid- or late-first-rounder.

依然，所有Sheppard做的事情在NBA都非常珍貴。只有幾個管理層人員跟我說他們將
Shppard看的那麼高，但他們大多數都不覺得他會在樂透以外被選中。其他的也至少將他視為首輪中後段的球員。

With this draft’s upside as questionable as it is at the top, I’m more
willing to bet on outliers like Sheppard breaking the mold. He’s been my
favorite player in the country to watch so far in college hoops, and if we’
re betting on guys with non-traditional pathways toward breakout stardom —
think Haliburton, Maxey, Brunson and others — it makes sense to value those
who possess elite feel and shooting ability as opposed to other athletic
traits.

在這屆選秀前端上限非常有疑慮的前提下，我更願意在Sheppard這種非典型的離群者上下賭注。他是我大學籃球現階段全國最喜歡看的球員。如果我們押注在那些非傳統路線的明星--想想Haliburton、Maxey、Brunson與其他人--將菁英級別的比賽感覺與投射能力的價值看得比傳統的運動能力高是合理的事情。

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