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[情報] 美元會再漲5% !?降息不可能?

看板Stock標題[情報] 美元會再漲5% !?降息不可能?作者
gothmog
(上海極司非爾路76號)
時間推噓74 推:79 噓:5 →:46

不負責翻譯在最後



Dollar to Rise Another 5% on Sticky Inflation, Acadian Says

The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming months as still-elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward further policy tightening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management.

Bloomberg News
Anya Andrianova
Published Sep 12, 2023 ‧



(Bloomberg) — The dollar is poised to jump with Treasury yields in the coming months as still-elevated inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve toward further policy tightening, says Clifton Hill at Acadian Asset Management.

Hill, a global macro portfolio manager, sees the US currency gaining an additional 5% versus many peers, with the trigger coming as policy makers signal further interest-rate hikes in the leadup to their Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting. He’s prepping for that outcome by favoring the greenback against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, as well as the yen.


His views on the Fed and the dollar proved prescient earlier this year. In February, he correctly predicted that the yen would fall back toward the 32-year lows it hit in 2022 as the Fed tightened further than many market participants anticipated.

The US currency stabilized on Tuesday, after falling from a six-month high Monday as authorities in Japan and China ramped up support for their currencies. Butas Hill sees it, the decline to start the week will amount to a bump in the road as markets reprice the Fed’s path. It’s a chain of events he also expects will push 10-year Treasury yields close to 5%, a level last seen in 2007, from roughly 4.3% now.

“The Fed may have to leave the possibility open of hiking further,” potentially two or three more times, said the money manager, whose firm oversees about $100 billion. “Inflation actually going up away from global central banks’ targets in the fourth quarter would be a game changer for markets.”

Read more: Fed Hikes Risk Dragging Yen Back to 145 Per Dollar, Acadian Says

Traders expect the Fed to stay on hold at a policy meeting next week, and see roughly a 50% chance that it delivers another hike at the following decision Nov.1, before pivoting to cuts next year. The Fed pushed its benchmark rate to the highest in more than two decades in July to tame inflation.

STORY CONTINUES BELOW
The dollar gained the past eight weeks, buoyed by the US economy’s resilience relative to other major peers, in particular Europe and China.

US consumer-price index data scheduled for release Wednesday is expected to show inflation pressure reaccelerating, which risks jolting the Treasury market. The CPI is expected to have risen 3.6% in August from a year earlier, from 3.2% inJuly, even as the core measure — which removes food and energy costs — fell to 4.3%, the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey shows.

Read more: Bond Traders Brace for Risk Inflation Will Fuel Rate-Hike Bets

“Every time that inflation comes down some, markets and economists extrapolateout that it will continue all the way down to 2% in short order,” Hill said. “But we are still well over 4% in US core inflation, and there is a good chance that it stays there, or increases back up this autumn into early next year.”

Hill also anticipates dollar strength versus most emerging markets, with the yuan, South Korean won and Brazilian real likely to lose the most.

He acknowledges that his outlook poses a risk to assets like stocks, which are vulnerable to any uptick in expectations for additional Fed tightening.

But if inflation is proving tough to tackle, policy makers’ “hands are completely tied,” he said. “If inflation is going up, you can’t then all of a sudden cut rates.”

In the “best case,” he said, in which inflation doesn’t accelerate as much as he expects, the Fed refrains from hiking further, and instead stays on hold for most of 2024.

(Updates market movement.)


不負責翻譯如下


Acadian Asset Management(知名資產管理公司)管理著約1000億美元的基金經理CliftonHill表示,

未來幾個月,美元將隨著美國國債收益率的上漲而上漲,美元兌換其它貨幣將再上升5%(Fed 非常有可能在10/31-11/1 的會議上宣布加息)

因為通膨打不下來,可能會推動美聯儲進一步收緊政策,至少再加息2-3次

他說:美國核心通膨還在4%以上 就不能說反通膨成功,反通膨沒有成功 就不能提降息


結論: 救救美債?

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sheng76314 09/13 22:44計畫通 裱死中國

koexe 09/13 22:46台幣35指日可待

zephyr105 09/13 22:46一邊說降息一邊說升息…

IhateOGC 09/13 22:47騙人吧,嗚嗚嗚

kakalin 09/13 22:48根本沒說過會降息吧 多挖自作多情

gigikaka 09/13 22:48美國財政部也可能出手買美債

AGODC 09/13 22:49走降息循環走了20年所累積下來的通膨預期,用1-2年

AGODC 09/13 22:49急速升息就能打下來?想得太美了吧

EvilJustice 09/13 22:50要不要去跟上一篇打一架

s7598261 09/13 22:50中國表示:要死一起死

mecca 09/13 22:53這波利率大概會升到8%以上 幫QQ

gothmog 09/13 22:53這篇可是彭博社的新聞

avmm9898 09/13 22:55躺著噴 不重要

yu7038 09/13 22:57真的完了

nodnarb1027 09/13 22:57散戶都進場長債ETF了,怎麼現在才說

jingbaby77 09/13 22:58美國農會表示:

bnn 09/13 22:59漲5%也才33多 不會到35啦

jingbaby77 09/13 23:00https://i.imgur.com/8ZegKDx.jpg

rayisgreat 09/13 23:02噴噴

AUTIS 09/13 23:06美元短多長空

tist 09/13 23:08台幣短期36 長期40

gothmog 09/13 23:08https://i.imgur.com/UjKjbMA.jpg

Scorpio777 09/13 23:10丸子 台股要崩了嗎

nanachi 09/13 23:11台幣至少35了

comesome 09/13 23:11一副要跌的樣子

gigikaka 09/13 23:12我加碼 新台幣回到固定40

neo5277 09/13 23:12很好啊美國就是自己在做債務調整

panzerbug 09/13 23:13讚喔

madhate 09/13 23:13部位在美股,樂觀其成

zephyr105 09/13 23:15買美債ETF真的保重

huaiken 09/13 23:155%哩 沒看台幣目前反應是升值 美債也是嗎

ev331 09/13 23:18房租都要降了 石油是還能漲多久

alongalone 09/13 23:18問題是噴到爆啊....

rahim 09/13 23:19美國繼續升息的話,死最慘的是壽險公司,不是現在

rahim 09/13 23:19進場買美債ETF的散戶

JOKIC 09/13 23:19騙人的啦

qw5526259 09/13 23:24台幣會再跌,只是會跌到哪裡,難估~~~

jceefailurer09/13 23:25鎂蛙笑哇哇

hihi29 09/13 23:29買美債的只有破產跟在破產的路上 二選一

comesome 09/13 23:31也太噴

john1189432409/13 23:33美債壽險公司表示

gigikaka 09/13 23:35美債問題 美國財政部應會處理

a12838910 09/13 23:36https://i.imgur.com/CBso42D.jpg

MakeTheMoon 09/13 23:36窮鬼最喜歡酸買美債的大戶,笑死

gigikaka 09/13 23:38國際原油價格高漲 是聯合減產造成 頁岩油民主黨不

gigikaka 09/13 23:38喜歡

strife 09/13 23:39開戰破50

gigikaka 09/13 23:39替代能源搞這麼多年 仍無法擺脫原油

bigguy 09/13 23:44什麼35 40 上看45歐印買美元財富自由

bigguy 09/13 23:44嘴砲誰不會 笑死

gigikaka 09/13 23:50剔除能源、食物,8月份cpi算是溫和 應該不升也不降

gigikaka 09/13 23:50 比較合理

jl40 09/13 23:52大家都朝自己喜歡的解讀 蠻合理的

sssss33333 09/13 23:54通膨依在。

iamten 09/13 23:5435台人就要吃草了 還40咧

iamten 09/13 23:55雖然我大蘋說 台幣只值37 嘿嘿

testutw 09/13 23:55巴菲特也買美債啊 只不過是短期的等收錢

gillian21 09/13 23:57通膨本來就降不下來 拜登沒招了 準備大爆崩吧

gillian21 09/13 23:57之前都只是在數字上動個手腳 假象而已

leon1757tw 09/13 23:59央行這種擺爛的態度 35真的不是不可能

ab4daa 09/14 00:00台灣cpi太低了才該降息

jl40 09/14 00:03我有大量外匯存底 我也會擺爛 匯差 利差 賺翻了 只

jl40 09/14 00:03是要犧牲人民的血汗 反正央行又不關心

swanc 09/14 00:03核心有降,無腦多就對了

testutw 09/14 00:06都躺著選了 人民的血汗?能吃嗎?

testutw 09/14 00:06不要被建商金主靠夭才是最大的任務

ninggo 09/14 00:08為什麼不早說

zszsdd 09/14 00:13台灣出過13A總裁,經濟本來就為政治服務,不用期待

zszsdd 09/14 00:13跌倒35。

qwe22992168 09/14 00:39不是FED講的 我都當他在放屁

icehorng 09/14 00:41他是誰 他說不降就不降

icehorng 09/14 00:42FED 有議員施壓 他有嗎

chongwen 09/14 00:45什麼開戰破50,真開戰的話,就變廢紙了啦

chongwen 09/14 00:46央行這種操作,真的賭很大

bemily32 09/14 00:47央行又要騎斑馬遊台灣嘍

bemily32 09/14 00:48蘋果表示:甘 早知道給台灣1:40

stocktonty 09/14 00:49怎麼每到9月就會出現同樣一批論調的人啊

stocktonty 09/14 00:50去年九月也這樣 今年又來一次

bigguy 09/14 00:54所以世界上蠢人多啊 整天做夢喊

ezreal1315 09/14 01:07美債隨便買隨便賺

kausan 09/14 01:0932*105%=?

capirex 09/14 01:09目標35

Lineage5415 09/14 01:41推文一堆政治仔要不要乾脆去政黑版

finalpage 09/14 02:35經濟本來就跟政治密切相關,這樣就要趕人去政黑板?

finalpage 09/14 02:35

hegemon 09/14 03:34某些人可能不知道經濟是政治的一個分支

c41231717 09/14 03:51哇幹 感覺事情真大條了

kevin31a2 09/14 03:52那位?說升就升

c41231717 09/14 03:53台幣應該33啦 但有些國家資金被這樣吸走 看來是要

c41231717 09/14 03:53有金融風暴了

a0124021 09/14 04:12媽的定存美金比玩股票賺得多

chocho1981 09/14 04:56說降息的不是都華爾街在說?他們期待一年多了吧?

chocho1981 09/14 05:01https://i.imgur.com/9hKo4Aw.jpg

chocho1981 09/14 05:01美金定存現在真的香到不行,可惜當初買太少了,要

chocho1981 09/14 05:01是敢all in的話,現在一個月的利息應該已經超過我

chocho1981 09/14 05:01未來的月退俸了

lpmybig 09/14 05:40告訴你還會漲五趴還不歐印

royli 09/14 06:2635當然好啊,台灣是出超國,賺翻了

chongwen 09/14 06:42樓上,台灣是能源進口國,台電、中油會破產

chongwen 09/14 06:43通膨會爆炸,政府要又花稅金救台電、中油

nantai25 09/14 06:58看來美金要跌了,快出脫唷

champion092209/14 07:06推 美元

w08445566 09/14 07:10台灣也準備升息了 大哥二弟大利空 趕快逢低買進

bndan 09/14 07:40去年央行怎做 今年就會怎做 但好奇的是 假如這波打

bndan 09/14 07:40通膨+降息要耗十年爲單位的話 央行不升息撐的住?

bndan 09/14 07:40 匯率放風到35會讓政府被物價洗臉 升息會被房貸族洗

bndan 09/14 07:40臉 兩難 XD

maypcc 09/14 07:43哈哈 前兩年還有人在酸美金定存

azcooper 09/14 07:56去年酸32美金定存的人呢?

piece1 09/14 07:57老鮑:怎麼一直都有人不信我說的話

gmailsucks 09/14 08:00股票都賺多少了 美金定存現在賺多少啊?

ecwecwtw 09/14 08:02中國還能防守離岸人民幣前,應該不會降息

cckhyofg 09/14 08:08股票真的賺得人是有多少?有定存美金的人多嗎?

peace000 09/14 08:15台幣真的要貶破35了

bba75149 09/14 08:18到35 出口的中小會爽死吧

p580ir190 09/14 08:29油價減產,升息繼續

ce0336ce 09/14 08:32等一下~你這是翻譯?還是心得?也縮太短了吧?

k798976869 09/14 09:11再漲5%也太爽了吧 躺著領10%

iamaq18c 09/14 09:35再漲5%.....今天馬上就跌惹~

MADAOTW 09/14 09:44國泰美金定存還是只有3%左右,有點想換銀行了

AnneofGreen 09/14 10:00華南美金定存優利5%

sivachow 09/14 10:15匯豐有美元定存優利6%新戶6個月~

laserx 09/14 10:3132台灣央行已經受不了~ 還35勒

stocktonty 09/14 10:35匯豐那個6.6%要先放300萬才行喔

pov 09/14 10:54美蛙vvv

ivan761016 09/14 11:44語畢台幣狂跌 笑死

j3 09/14 12:33通常這種文章一出 應該就...

bagaalo 09/14 13:11現在買美金定存??當真?

billionaire 09/14 19:51cc

k374318 09/14 20:49央行死不升息在那撐...ㄎㄎ