[情報] INTC.US 財報及展望

1. 標題：Intel Earnings Beat Expectations. Why the Stock Is Sliding.

2. 來源：barrons

3. 網址：https://ibit.ly/SyER

4. 內文：

Intel shares were down in late-trading Wednesday after the company reported
better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings but provided a mixed outlook forthe first quarter.

英特爾股價週三尾盤下跌，此前該公司公佈第四季度業績好於預期，但第一季度前景喜憂參半。

For the fourth quarter, the company posted non-GAAP revenue of $19.5 billion,up 4% from a year ago, and adjusted earnings of $1.09 a share, down from
$1.48 a year ago. Analysts had expected non-GAAP revenue of $18.3 billion andearnings of 90 cents per share, in line with Intel’s own forecast. On a GAAP
basis, revenue was $20.5 billion, ahead of the company’s forecast of $19.2
billion.

第四季度，該公司公佈的非會計準則收入為195億美元，同比增長4% ，
調整後每股收益為1.09美元，低於去年同期的1.48美元。

分析師此前預期非會計準則營收為183億美元，每股收益為90美分，與英特爾自己的
預測一致。在 GAAP 的基礎上，收入為205億美元，超過了公司預測的192億美元。

The company also announced a 5% dividend increase, boosting the payout to
36.5 cents quarterly.

該公司還宣布增加5% 的股息，將每季度的股息提高到36.5美分。

“It was a tremendous finish to a great year, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said in
an interview with Barron’s, noting that the company topped revenue guidance
by more than $1 billion, driven by strength in both the PC and server
business.

英特爾首席執行官帕特·基爾辛格在接受《巴倫周刊》採訪時表示:偉大的一年完美落幕.由於個人電腦和服務器業務的強勁增長，英特爾的收入超過了預期的10億美元。

On the outlook for the PC market, Gelsinger says the market has expanded to
about 1 million units a day, and is “just structurally larger” than it was
before the pandemic. He adds that the launch of Windows 11 will be a boost todemand for both Microsoft (MSFT) and for Intel, and he says that a corporate
PC refresh cycle is emerging. Gelsinger says demand is being driven by “
higher PC density,” with more computers per household as people spend more
time working from home.

對於個人電腦市場的前景，基爾辛格說，市場已經擴大到每天大約100萬台，而且“結構
上比大流行病爆發前還要大”。他補充說，Windows 11的發布將提振微軟(Microsoft)和
英特爾(Intel)的需求，他還表示，企業個人電腦更新周期正在形成。基爾辛格表示，由於人們在家工作的時間越來越多，每個家庭擁有更多的電腦，“更高的個人電腦密度”推
動了需求。

As for the strong growth in the data center business, Gelsinger says strengthcame in particular from enterprise and government customers, with the cloud
business not quite as strong, conceding “we were a little behind there all
year.”

至於數據中心業務的強勁增長，基爾辛格表示，主要依靠企業和政府客戶，而雲業務沒有那麼強勁，他承認“我們整年都有點落後”

Asked about component shortages, Gelsinger said that “everything is a
challenge in the supply chain environment we’re in.” One issue is that
customers need to get “matched sets” of components to complete finished
goods. He says there are shortages in multiple foundry sizes, resulting in
shortages of power controllers, network interface cards, and ethernet
controllers, among other parts. He also notes that while Intel makes most of
its own parts, the company relies on foundries for 25% to 30% of its
capacity, and notes that its own production has been affected by shortages ofsubstrates and controllers and other parts. Gelsinger says that Intel would
have beaten guidance “by a lot more” if the component shortages were
resolved.

在被問及零部件短缺問題時，基辛格說:在我們所處的供應鏈環境中，任何事情都是一
個挑戰。

但有個問題是，為了滿足提供給客戶的解決方案，目前零件存在短缺。具體的來說是
電源控制器，網路卡，以及網路控制器等部分的短缺。
他還指出，雖然英特爾的大部分零部件都是自己生產的，但該公司25% 到30% 的產能
依賴於其他供應商廠，並指出其自身的生產已經受到ABF、控制器和其他零部件短缺的
影響。如果零部件短缺問題得到解決，英特爾可能會比大幅超過預期。

Meanwhile, Gelsinger says the company is on track for the planned IPO for itsMobileEye business. He added that Intel should have more to say about the
timing of that deal at the company’s Feb. 17 analyst day.

與此同時，Gelsinger表示該公司正在按計劃進行其 MobileEye 業務的首次公開募股。
他補充說，英特爾應該在公司 2 月 17 日的分析師日就這筆交易的時間發表更多意見。

Gross margin in the quarter fell to 55.4%, from 60% a year ago, while
operating margin dropped to 25.9%, from 32.4%. Earnings per share benefitted
from a sharp drop in the company’s tax rate, to 11.7%, from 21.7%. Under
generally accepted accounting principles, the company earned $1.13 a share inthe quarter.

本季度毛利率從去年同期的60% 降至55.4%，營業利潤率從32.4% 降至25.9%。
每股收益受益於公司稅率的大幅下降(從21.7% 降至11.7%)。
根據公認的會計原則，該公司當季每股收益為1.13美元。

For the full year, Intel reported non-GAAP revenue of $74.7 billion, up 2%,
while adjusted profits were $5.47 a share, up from $5.10 in 2020. GAAP
profits were $4.86 a share.

英特爾全年非公認會計準則收入為747億美元，同比增長2% ，調整後利潤為每股5.47美元，高於2020年的5.10美元。公認會計準則的利潤為每股4.86美元。

Revenue in the company’s client computing group, which serves the PC market,
were $10.1. billion in the quarter, down 7% from a year ago. Data center
group revenues were $7.3 billion, up 20%. The company’s internet of things
group had revenue of $1.1 billion, up 36%.

客戶端計算集團的收入為10.1美元。這個季度的銷售額為10億美元，比去年同期下降了7%數據中心集團的收入為73億美元，增長了20%
物聯網部門收入11億美元，增長36%

For the March quarter, the company sees both GAAP and non-GAAP revenue of
$18.3 billion, with profits of 80 cents a share on an adjusted basis, or 70
cents under generally accepted accounting principles. Wall Street analysts
had been expecting revenue of $17.6 billion and non-GAAP profits of 86 cents
a share.

在三月份這個季度，公司預計 GAAP 和非 GAAP 收入為183億美元，調整後每股利潤為80美分，或者按照普遍接受的會計原則每股利潤為70美分。華爾街分析師此前預計收入為
176億美元，非公認會計原則的利潤為每股86美分。

Heading into the quarter, some analysts thought the results could top
guidance, but for Intel the focus has been less on near-term performance and
more on its progress on revamping its business model and building out
capacity.

一些分析師認為，本季度業績可能超過業績預期，但對英特爾而言，其關注焦點一直較少放在近期業績上，而是更多地放在業務模式改革和產能擴張方面的進展上。

Last week, for instance, the company announced a plan to invest more than $20billion to build out two new chip fabrication plants in Ohio. Almost a year
ago, CEO Pat Gellsinger laid out the company’s new manufacturing strategy,
including a $20 billion program to build two new fabs in Arizona.

上週該公司宣布計劃投資超過200億美元在俄亥俄州建造兩個新的晶圓廠。
大約一年前，公司首席執行官 Pat Gellsinger 公佈了公司的新製造戰略，
其中包括在亞利桑那州投資200億美元建造兩座新晶圓廠的計劃

Ahead of the report, Morgan Stanley chip analyst Joseph Moore wrote that he
didn't expect any big surprises this quarter, asserting that the company’s
ongoing high capital spending likely limited upside for the stock.

在報告發布之前，摩根士丹利芯片分析師約瑟夫 · 摩爾寫道，他預計本季度不會出現大的意外，並斷言公司持續的高資本支出可能限制了股票的上行。

Moore, who has an Equal Weight rating on Intel shares, wrote in a recent
preview note that he sees a mixed PC market, with strong desktop and
enterprise trends but weaker demand in notebooks and the consumer market. He
says server demand is generally stronger, but that Intel continues to see
market-share pressure in the cloud versus both AMD and ARM-based processors.
While Moore thinks the stock looks “compelling” on a multiple of sales
basis, he says the ongoing heavy costs for fab buildouts “limits our
enthusiasm longer term.”

摩爾在最近的預覽報告中寫道，他認為個人電腦市場喜憂參半，PC和企業電腦市場走勢強勁，但筆記本電腦和消費者市場需求疲軟。

他表示，Server需求總體上較為強勁，但英特爾繼續看到雲計算相對於 AMD 和基於 arm的處理器的市場份額壓力。

雖然摩爾認為，從銷售額的倍數來看，該股票看起來令人信服，但建造晶圓廠的持續沉重成本“長期限制了我們的熱情”

Susquehanna Financial Group analyst Chrisopher Rolland argued ahead of the
report that that fourth-quarter and first-quarter consensus estimates “
appear beatable,” given conservative guidance and a strong PC environment.
But he thinks risks remain as the work-from-home trend fades late in 2022. Hesays previous shortages of low-end PCs and Chromebooks for the education
market have eased. He maintains a Neutral rating on Intel shares.

薩斯奎哈納金融集團(Susquehanna Financial Group)分析師克里斯奧弗‧羅蘭
(Chrisopher Rolland)在報告發布前表示，考慮到保守的業績指引和強勁的個人電腦市場環境，第四季度和第一季度的共識預期“似乎可以超過預期”。

但他認為，隨著家庭辦公趨勢在2022年末逐漸消退，風險仍然存在。之前教育市場中
低端 pc 和 chromebook 的短缺現像已經緩解。他對英特爾股票的評級為中性。

Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson recently repeated his Underperform rating and $45target price on Intel shares ahead of the quarter. His view was that while
Intel is doing the right thing in boosting investment to restore its
preeminent position in chip manufacturing, “the required increase in
spending over the next few years will necessarily weigh heavily on company
results.” And he notes that the payoff from the investment program won’t
materialize until at least 2023.

Wedbush 分析師 Matt Bryson 最近重申了他對英特爾股票的表現不佳評級和45美元的目標價。他的觀點是，儘管英特爾為恢復其在晶片製造領域的卓越地位而加大投資是正確的，但“未來幾年必須增加的支出，必然會對公司業績產生重大影響。”他還指出，至少要
到2023年，這個投資項目的回報才會實現。

Concluded Bryson: “With Intel effectively remaining in limbo through the
current year as changes have yet to manifest in new products and with metricsstill set to deteriorate as competition weighs on share, we see no reason to
shift our view and remain sellers of Intel.”

布萊森總結道:由於新產品尚未出現變化，而且競爭壓力加大，各項指標仍將惡化，
英特爾在今年實際上仍處於停滯狀態，我們認為沒有理由改變我們的觀點:繼續賣英特爾!

備註:收盤價51.69(+1.35%) 盤後50.50(-2.3%)

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其實I皇在12代的勢頭強勁,電蝦一堆單使用12代就可見一二.
有一種說法是蘇媽在搶Server端無暇顧及小眾的終端市場.

不過這財報讓我有點傻眼,我以為是終端成長,伺服器端消退,結果剛好相反.
唯一不變的是看來伺服器端還是持續被啃食.

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這點跟當初MU有點像.喊著要建廠 然後就...慘了至少兩季 不管財報怎樣好,華爾街就是喊空 -.-

肉很多!

好像在2020尾聲就有人預告牙膏可能走回某次跟AMD競爭的老路:降價. 當時還不夠香,無法沒有品牌偏好的用戶. 現在看來12代真的有那個感覺.讓這些玩家覺得CP值比AMD好.