Re: [颱風] 2107 查帕卡

exempt 發表於 2021/7/20 上午6:36:43

看板TY_Research標題Re: [颱風] 2107 查帕卡作者

exempt

(123)時間Jul 20 06:36:43 2021推噓39 推:39 噓:0 →:27

PTT評價

說是一篇廢文,各位追風愉快。

JTWC第6報已經給了C1強度了

https://i.imgur.com/3KqtpWn.gif

Windy雷達回波
https://i.imgur.com/aDAJsRK.png

EC系集

https://i.imgur.com/Ukb7bPR.png

GFS系集(待補)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

JTWC第6報說明文字認為風切、海溫和輻散都有利於

颱風發展,但是颱風已經非常靠近陸地了,陸地的干擾

不利於颱風發展,因此預測65KTS封頂。颱風登陸後

強度當然就大幅減弱啦!

路徑方面太多不確定性。颱風會先向西北移動並登陸,

颱風登陸後先觀察颱風能活多久,並觀察是否會掉到北

部灣或雷州半島。預報員對72小時內的路徑預測沒什麼

把握(forecast confidence:Low),72小時後路徑預測更

不用講了~

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION IS BEGINNING TO SLOW
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 10W WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND
MOVE ASHORE NEAR TAU 18. AFTER LANDFALL, A LOOPING OVERLAND TRACK
WILL WEAKEN THE SYTEM SUBSTANTIALLY BUT NOT COMPLETELY KILL IT.
TRACK GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT IN CARRYING THE VORTEX
BACK OUT TO SEA OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN IN THE TAU 48-72 HOUR
PERIOD, WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL RE-INTENSIFY AND BE PUSHED POLEWARD
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLIES. THERE IS GREAT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DURING THE LATER PERIODS DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY IN WHERE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF TONKIN AND
WHAT TRACK IT TAKES OVER HAINAN, AS WELL AS CONDITIONS OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA.

MODEL DISCUSSION: AFTER LANDFALL, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL
VARIABILITY IN HOW AND WHERE IT RE-ENTERS THE GULF OF TONKIN AND
TRAVERSES HAINAN ISLAND. THEREFORE THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INTENSITY IN THE TAU 72-120HR PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//

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推

Eeli2008 07/20 07:05廣東會不會有災情

推

geek 07/20 07:10會

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jason202660 07/20 07:18南部風迷比較期待小查！

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truffaut 07/20 07:39https://imgur.com/a/TuA8LqV 24號在東沙島一帶

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aa1477888 07/20 08:12小查近岸混到C1超猛

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exempt 07/20 09:01https://i.imgur.com/ahfR7b4.gif

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OAVAYAVAO 07/20 09:21小查加油

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keroromoa 07/20 09:21小J終於給了STS

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evanzxcv 07/20 09:41近岸爆發！不過這麼小顆一登陸就剩半條命了

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exempt 07/20 10:24https://i.imgur.com/azMMgur.png

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tina1007 07/20 10:24等一下，中颱？？？

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WuCH1022 07/20 10:27風眼的出來了給中颱很合理

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exempt 07/20 10:28應該是最迷你的中颱了,比浣熊還小

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rulDD 07/20 10:28近岸還能開眼八成小鋼砲中心風速達中颱等級有可能

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keroromoa 07/20 10:30七級風半徑80公里的中颱wow

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Johnnyyang 07/20 10:3180/30也太迷妳

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Johnnyyang 07/20 10:31之前浣熊好像是100/30？

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HellFly 07/20 10:32範圍小增強快減弱也快

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keroromoa 07/20 10:33浣熊120/50 哈格比100/40

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tina1007 07/20 10:33南海這幾年都易出這種家門前的小鋼炮

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exempt 07/20 10:33浣熊有到120/50

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eupa1973 07/20 11:00潭美

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aa1477888 07/20 11:0480/30的中颱創紀錄了吧

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jimmychung0707/20 11:07請問e大的雷達圖資來源？好清晰耶

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xxxff0645 07/20 11:14應該是中國那邊的雷達

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xxxff0645 07/20 11:15浣熊其實更小 CWB多給而已

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jimmychung0707/20 11:16我在官方看的解析度都沒那麼好XDD

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info1994 07/20 11:45竟然能活著離開海南島

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tina1007 07/20 11:46什麼？出海了？

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otis1713 07/20 11:49還沒登入吧

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mecca 07/20 11:49那甚麼時候要登出@@?

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wanye8329 07/20 11:50都還沒撞進廣東哪有出海

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wanye8329 07/20 11:51不過也蠻扯的因為滯留可以近岸爆發將近一整天

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allen8213 07/20 11:52會先進去出來才碰海南島

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Retsell 07/20 11:55登入登出XD

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ICEFTP 07/20 11:57登(陸),不是登(入); 出來後叫(出海),不叫(登出金

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ICEFTP 07/20 11:57(登出)

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otis1713 07/20 12:02剛剛打錯字但也不能改了XD

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StarFox0910 07/20 12:10系統提示：請先輸入帳號密碼才能登入廣東（x

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exempt 07/20 12:43http://tqyb.com.cn/gz/weatherLive/radar/

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exempt 07/20 12:43@jimmychung07

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exempt 07/20 12:46對岸鄉民從這個網站搜集圖片,之後作成動圖

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jimmychung0707/20 13:21了解，謝e大

推

greg7575 07/20 13:38我又進來啦！我又出去啦！

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bigshawn 07/20 14:02嘗試登入次數過多 ban掉(X

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exempt 07/20 15:59https://i.imgur.com/cOTztIG.png

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exempt 07/20 16:00https://i.imgur.com/X4bk573.png

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Johnnyyang 07/20 16:15要活著出來有難度

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evanzxcv 07/20 16:16預測路徑越挖越裡面XD

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LI40 07/20 16:19這路徑除非發生brown ocean effect 要不然出來很可

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LI40 07/20 16:19能只剩殘餘吧XD

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Johnnyyang 07/20 16:25CWB預測出來後連TD都很難

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tina1007 07/20 16:28這樣還可以逃出生天就厲害了

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evanzxcv 07/20 16:28出來應該剩渣渣了

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jimmychung0707/20 16:46https://i.imgur.com/K5NVvFZ.png

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jimmychung0707/20 16:47看對岸的觀測數據有17級陣風，正確性未知

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jimmychung0707/20 16:49倒是對岸論壇有回應說台山市南鵬國家站有觀測到15級

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saimeitetsu 07/20 16:49陸地乾燥的情況，屍骨不知道還在不在

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jimmychung0707/20 16:49最大陣風，最低氣壓980.6hPa

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jimmychung0707/20 16:50小查真不簡單啊

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jay121133 07/20 17:08如果他進去之後出來消散了煙花颱風是不是就不會南

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jay121133 07/20 17:09落，但是偏西走？

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jay121133 07/20 17:53落，但是偏西走？

推

qazthlin 07/20 18:43高壓引導影響遠大於藤原

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info1994 07/20 19:35也往裡面跑太多了吧這樣還能出來也很厲害

推

imrbo 07/20 19:50對流減弱好快

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[颱風] 2107 查帕卡

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首Poexempt：作者: exempt (123) 看板: TY_Research 標題: [颱風] 2107 查帕卡時間: Sun Jul 18 23:46:03 2021

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