[情報] 90W升格13W

exempt 發表於 2021/8/3 上午8:59:06

看板TY_Research標題[情報] 90W升格13W作者

exempt

(123)時間Aug 3 08:59:06 2021推噓30 推:32 噓:2 →:14

PTT評價

JTWC第4報

https://i.imgur.com/kLOi5KP.gif

GFS 系集 (03 18Z)

https://i.imgur.com/wwKt5nD.png

EC系集 (03 06Z)

https://i.imgur.com/tLPaLf4.png

JTWC說明文字

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 20-25 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

FORECAST DISCUSSION: UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NER, TD
13W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UP TO TAU 24.
AFTERWARD, AS THE NER BUILDS, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 40KTS BY TAU 24. BY TAU 48,
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 35KTS AS IT DRAGS ALONG THE CHINESE
COAST, THEN IMPROVES TO 40KTS BY TAU 12O WHEN IT EXITS INTO THE
YELLOW SEA. THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK FURTHER INLAND AND DISSIPATE BEFORE TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE MAJORITY OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THE TWO OUTLIERS ARE JGSM THAT
TRACKS THE VORTEX DUE NORTH DEEP INTO THE CHINA INTERIOR, AND AVN
THAT MOMENTARILY DIPS THE VORTEX SOUTH THEN TRACKS THE VORTEX INTO
CHINA IN AN ERRATIC PATTERN. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID JUST
NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 24 HRS THEN RIGHT OF CONSENSUS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST TO OFFSET THE OUTLIER MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//

※ PTT 留言評論

※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 101.9.49.49 (臺灣)

※ PTT 網址

→

airua 08/03 09:05這路徑滿適合調整半徑的 XD

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lyuxing 08/03 09:09樓上很懂

推

ICEFTP 08/03 09:12一樓錄取哈

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Bustycat 08/03 09:12JMA的鋼索路徑 https://i.imguXr.com/K2jk5Pu.png

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tonywiner 08/03 09:17路徑又是各種閃

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exempt 08/03 09:25JTWC 72小時內的路徑預測信頼度:高

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jimmychung0708/03 09:25真的是電流急急棒欸

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jimmychung0708/03 09:26XDDD

※ 編輯: exempt (101.9.49.49 臺灣), 08/03/2021 09:32:29

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sdiaa 08/03 09:35JMA這沿海毀滅彈道還蠻恐怖的

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hyscout 08/03 09:41JTWC這路徑必發陸警吧沒發本島也會發離島

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qq00212369 08/03 09:44這是颱風了嗎？

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exempt 08/03 09:46https://i.imgur.com/2G5nKo0.png

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jimmychung0708/03 09:5260大關在即加油德基

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exempt 08/03 09:55已經破60%啦,60.4%(灑花)

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nadekowang 08/03 09:56 從熱帶擾動升格成熱帶性低氣壓

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nadekowang 08/03 09:56還沒升格到颱風

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JuiFu617 08/03 10:03看風切感覺很大

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jcwang 08/03 10:12https://www.cwb.gov.tw/Data/typhoon/TY_NEWS/PTA_

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jcwang 08/03 10:12202108030000-120_TD11_zhtw.png

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exempt 08/03 10:13[img]https://i.imgur.com/oNH0u2p.png[/img]

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exempt 08/03 10:15CWB開示

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FoxtailMille08/03 10:33最後一張圖的藍勾是啥

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tim880928 08/03 10:36給我往西喔！！

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hotanger 08/03 11:19哇明天會不會發陸警啊？

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xulglma 08/03 11:21我叫你西

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elainakuo 08/03 12:03給我往西吹

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immosha 08/03 12:05往西！（吹）

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leonhu 08/03 12:15The 閃

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skyangle060708/03 13:37經過台灣時還刻意靠右閃

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hikkiqoo 08/03 14:59各種閃欸

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fajita 08/03 15:07大J急急棒，GFS右岸，EC左岸

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j42683 08/03 15:51幹有夠雖8/6要去花蓮玩都訂好了不能退…

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iorittn 08/03 16:13主要是尾巴的雨

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hubert0719 08/03 17:01被大陸吸過去?

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karen71014 08/03 17:21這根本是從台灣尾掃到台灣頭

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jeffkent 08/03 17:24這擺明就是連暴風圈都碰不到台灣，無感颱

噓

hotanger 08/03 18:14樓上算不算造謠？誰去檢舉？

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aegis43210 08/03 18:20沒發海警，這類預測還可以接受吧

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saimeitetsu 08/03 18:33看目前的路徑預測確實擦不到本島

※ 編輯: exempt (101.9.52.245 臺灣), 08/03/2021 19:22:57 ※ 編輯: exempt (101.9.52.245 臺灣), 08/03/2021 19:28:34 ※ 編輯: exempt (101.9.52.245 臺灣), 08/03/2021 19:30:37

噓

hotanger 08/03 19:46擦不到？造謠+1

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exempt 08/03 19:49https://i.imgur.com/13pHNeO.png

※ 編輯: exempt (101.9.52.245 臺灣), 08/03/2021 20:40:55

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w510048 08/03 21:42https://i.imgur.com/SbtBlLs.png

※ 編輯: exempt (101.9.52.245 臺灣), 08/03/2021 21:56:16 ※ 編輯: exempt (101.9.52.245 臺灣), 08/03/2021 22:19:30

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MiuLove 08/03 23:52就你去吧別一直叫別人

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lionsss 08/04 05:56無感什麼這方向上來的颱風帶來的雨可是很嚇人的