[其他]沒SC的勇士是NBA最差的球隊 轉自reddit

看了最近勇士的表現 可以說是不斷突破下限

被弱隊爆打 對強隊的抵抗力比坦隊還不如

被血洗20分以上的場次沒記錯是全聯盟最多

攤開陣容 真的有那麼差嗎? 原因又是什麼? 其實很明顯

本來想寫一篇討論 剛好今天 reddit(r/nba)上有一篇分析文

幾乎把我想講的都講了 那乾脆借花獻佛 重點翻譯 大家參考參考

網頁版請移駕https://reurl.cc/o94k2j

The 2021 Warriors are the worst team in the NBA when Steph
isn't on the court. And those numbers are still inflated,
because Steph is already carrying the majority of the Wiseman minutes,
and playing against the other team's best players.

2021勇士當curry不在場時是NBA最弱的球隊 這還已經是curry扛著智將
面對對方最好的球員

If we take Steph off this team, we may be looking at,
far and away, the worst team in basketball. Worse Than 2020?
The 2021 Warriors are 1-7 without Steph.
This is perhaps unsurprising--the 2020 Warriors went 14-46 without him.
What probably is surprising though, is that
this team might be even worse:

Warriors with Steph: 114 Off Rating (13th), +2.1 Net (10th)
2021 W/o Steph: 102.2 Off Rating (30th), -8.9 Net (30th)
2020 Warriors: 105.2 Off Rating (30th), -8.6 Net (30th)

如果拿掉curry我們可能正看著一支遠遠墊底球隊 比2020還差?
看來是這樣:
勇士有curry: 進攻效率114 (第13名) 淨效率 +2.1 (第10名)
2021 沒curry: 進攻效率102.2 (第30名) 淨效率 -8.9 (第30名)
2020 勇士: 進攻效率105.2 (第30名) 淨效率 -8.6 (第30名)

This is despite adding productive seasons from Wiggins and Draymond.
There's a clear reason for this. If we isolate to Warriors minutes
without Steph OR Wiseman, we see a bad, but improved team:

Warriors w/o Steph or Wiseman: 102.7 Off Rating (30th), -6.7 net (25th)

Still worst-in-the-NBA offense, but at least solid defensively,
with a net rating around OKC's number. This reveals something
about the 2021 Warriors that makes the Steph on/offs even more
absurd--Steph's own efficiency is getting killed by
playing with Wiseman.

這還已經是基於Wiggins和Green都有不錯的球季的前提
其中的原因很清楚 如果把curry和Wiseman一起拿掉 我們會的到一個
稍好一點點的球隊:

進攻效率102.7 (第30名) 淨效率 -6.7 (第25名)

仍然是全聯盟最差的進攻 但至少防守好一點 淨效率大約是雷霆水準
這讓curry的正負值顯得更加鬼扯 因為他自己的效率值和智將同場時
是被削弱的

https://imgur.com/a/yEjlaGP

The 16.4 offensive drop in Steph lineups when they add Wiseman,
is more than the distance between the offense of the Brooklyn Nets
and the Cleveland Cavaliers. And when Steph isn't around
to carry Wiseman, the Warriors get outscored by 14 net points
per 100, a worse number than the worst season of the "Process"
76ers (-10.2). Steph Curry is having the season he's having
(top 3 offensive EPM) despite having to play 2/3 of his minutes
every night with Duolingo Kwame Brown, like a speedboat
trying to drag a cruise ship anchor. James Wiseman is so bad
right now, that the Warriors are better just not having
either one on the court. Wiseman is arguably worse, right now,
than Steph is good.

Curry有沒有和Wiseman同時在場進攻效率差了16.4 這個差距比籃網和騎士
之間的差距還大 而當Curry不在場carry智將時 勇士每百回合要輸對手
14分 這比"相信過程"的76人還差(-10.2) 儘管每晚有2/3的時間必須和
雙語垮米布朗同場 Curry仍舊是那個Curry
Wiseman目前就是差勁到可以完全抵消Curry還有剩 乾脆兩個都不上還好一點

Now, other superstars in the west have had to carry their
team this year:

https://imgur.com/a/jKZkAaZ

But none of them have their team fall to league-worst net
rating when they leave the court.
(Look at Jokic there, give that man the MVP). And none of
these guys had their own +/- suppressed by being forced to
carry James Wiseman. Minus Steph, the 2021 Warriors are
worse than the 2020 team, because at least the 2020 team
didn't have to give 25 MPG to the worst rotation
frontcourt player in the NBA.

西區也有其他超巨必須carry他們的球隊 但沒有一支他們不在場
時淨效率是會墊底的 (看看Jokic 給他MVP!) 也沒有人必須
carry智將以至於影響自己的正負值
沒curry的2021勇士比2020還差 因為至少不用給全NBA最差的
前場輪替球員25分鐘

The Anti-Bogut
Wiseman is good enough at getting himself buckets so his
personal numbers never look catastrophic. A constant
refrain on the Warriors sub is: "Oh, he's scoring
10ppg on 50% shooting, not so bad" or "You know,
Jokic/AD/Garnett only scored 10 ppg as a rookie, etc."
Now those arguments ignore efficiency and era,
and relative to his peers, Wiseman's -5.6 BPM is in rookie
Adam Morrison territory. But I've been looking deeper into
his on/offs and I'm worried his box stats don't even
get close to the real problem. Wiseman might be the worst
team basketball player in the entire league. He is the
anti-Bogut. Never gets anyone else open. Never knows where
to be. Always slips the screen despite playing with the
greatest shooter ever. Calls for post-ups constantly.
Bungles the ensuing post-up. Always tries to "go into
his bag" despite the bag being a pocket. And again,
Wiseman's BPM is still really bad: -5.6, worst among
starting centers. But it doesn't tell the story of how he
makes everyone else worse. We've already seen how he makes
Steph human. What do you think happens when mortals try to
carry big Jim?

Wiseman自己能進球 所以他的個人傳統數據不會太悲慘 有些人會拿
這些數據和菜鳥Jokic/AD/Garnett比 卻忽略效率和時代不同
Wisemen -5.6 BPM 是 Adam Morrison的水準 在先發中鋒中墊底
但更大的問題恐怕在on/off的數據
他正好是Bogut的相反 沒辦法製造隊友空檔 永遠不知道該站在哪
擋拆時總是溜走 不停要位然後搞砸
我們已經看到他怎麼讓Curry變路人 那你認為其他凡人carry智將
時會發生什麼事?

https://imgur.com/a/vUX8OCf

Now keep in mind, at this slice the samples are getting
very small. But while they may not have predictive value,
they do have value in terms of: "holy shit, that's a bad
number." And placed alongside all the other bad numbers,
it's clear that the Wiseman is dragging down every
Warriors starter. As a long-time Minnesota Wiggins hater,
I spent a lot of this year disbelieving Wiggins career
rehabilitation. But once I separated Wiggins minutes from
Wiseman, his mediocre on/offs normalized. Wiggins got
annihilated in the games where he had to play with
Wiseman without Steph. In 641 minutes with Steph, Wiggins,
and no Wiseman, the Warriors have a 121 off Rating.
Wiseman has physical talent and seemingly is a great kid,
but he's probably 2 years away from being an average NBA
player. He is, right now, the worst starter in the league,
by a real margin.

要知道分析到這裡樣本數已經非常小了 但至少我們知道這數據很恐怖
很顯然Wiseman拖垮了每一個先發球員 當Steph Wiggins 同場而沒有
Wiseman的641分鐘 勇士的進攻效率是121 智將擁有身體天賦
看來也是個好孩子 但距離成為一個普通程度的NBA球員大概要
兩年 而現在 他是聯盟最差的先發球員

The 1978 Steve Kerr Warriors
IMO, Kerr is lucky he has the clout of 3 titles or he would
already be being scapegoated, Sacramento Joerger-style,
for the failures of the #2 pick.
Myers had a catastrophic off-season, and at some point,
the coach usually ends up on the chopping block first.
Like Joerger with Bagley, Kerr is in a playoff race
while being hounded to give starting minutes to one of
the worst players on his roster. To make things even worse
for him though, he's also starting Kelly Oubre
(Myers' other big offseason move), who fits into a high IQ
offense the way a brain-eating amoeba fits into a swim meet.
When Steph, Dray, and Wiggins get to play together without
Wiseman or Oubre, we're really cooking with gas:

https://imgur.com/a/REbbYO2

我認為Kerr要不是之前帶出了三冠 現在已經成為代罪羔羊了
就像國王的Joerger 因為養不出榜眼被火
Bob Myers有個災難性的off-season 但通常教練是先送上斷頭台的
Kerr 被要求給最差的球員上場時間 更慘的是 他也讓無法融入
高球商進攻的 Oubre 先發 (Myers的另一傑作)
當Steph Dray 和Wiggins 同場而沒有 Wiseman和 Oubre 淨效率
超猛的

That second lineup, scoring at a rate below 1978
league-average, two years before the 3pt line was introduced?
That's the Warriors starting lineup. You want to see proof
that Kerr is being put in a fucked up situation?
The Warriors starting lineup has a -13 net rating,
an offense scoring like a bottom-tier 70s basketball team,
and Kerr still can't bench anybody because the FO doesn't
want to look stupid. Do you think Kerr could bench Oubre
if he wanted? Lacob is paying $60M in luxury tax for the guy.
The FO is demanding he start Wiseman. The easy solution to
become a respectable basketball team overnight would be
to build lineups around Steph, Dray, Wiggs that don't
involve Wiseman or Oubre. But Kerr can't do that because
those were Myers two big offseason moves. Obviously small
sample size and everything, the team would still have
weaknesses. But forget the obvious mistake of not drafting
Lamelo. More and more I think the Warriors would've been
around 7th seed right now if they had just not signed
Oubre and drafted nobody.

表格裡面第二個lineup 得分比1978年的聯盟平均還差
那時還沒三分線 而這就是勇士先發陣容
勇士先發淨效率是-13 進攻像是70年代的弱隊 而kerr沒辦法讓人
降到替補 這一切就因為勇管不想讓人看起來像笨蛋(light years嘛)
你認為Kerr會讓Oubre打替補? Lacob為了他花60M奢侈稅
勇管也要求讓Wiseman先發
最簡單的解法就是 上Steph Dray Wiggins 然後避開智將和 Oubre
但 Kerr 不可能這麼做因為這是FO休賽季最大的move
我想如果當時沒交易Oubre 也沒選秀現在搞不好是第7種子

心得:

1. 其實勇士陣容不至於到現在還在搶play-in 甚至前6我都覺得不難
但現在的先發組合就注定是犧牲戰績陪公子練球 希望Kerr今天的
談話代表已經要開始 chase win了但為時已晚 頂多保住play-in

2. 交易截止前沒換走 Oubre 有點可惜 我現在最怕的是花大錢續約
他 日後發現沒有正效益還要貼籤送走

--