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[外電] 2010s十大交易案 Part 10

看板MLB標題[外電] 2010s十大交易案 Part 10作者
TRosenthal
(CatLover)
時間推噓44 推:44 噓:0 →:18

這是2010s 十大交易案最後一集,翻譯Mike Petriello的外電。
來源:https://www.mlb.com/news/the-10-biggest-mlb-trades-of-the-2010s

(10) The Braves and the heist everyone knew was a heist
Dec. 9, 2015: Braves trade P Shelby Miller and P Gabe Speier to D-backs for SS Dansby Swanson, OF Ender Inciarte and P Aaron Blair

10.每個人都知道是搶劫的Shelby Miller搶劫案

勇士拿到:Dansby Swanson、Ender Inciarte、Aaron Blair
響尾蛇拿到:Shelby Miller、Gabe Speier

What even?
Former Arizona GM Dave Stewart deserves some amount of credit for looking past Miller's 6-17 record in 2015 to focus on the 3.02 ERA the 24-year-old postedin 205 1/3 innings, but he paid an absolutely enormous price to get him. Arizona surrendered No. 1 overall Draft pick Swanson only six months after he'd signed, along with 2013 first-rounder Blair, and it failed to properly value Inciarte, who had just posted absolutely elite defensive numbers (+29 Defensive Runs Saved) in 2015 to go with a league-average bat -- a star-level combo.
Officially announced only days after the D-backs shockingly signed Zack Greinke away from the Dodgers for $206.5 million, it was a very clear "win-now" move. There's nothing wrong with that, but the price was so stunningly high -- you could argue, as we did at the time, that five years of Inciarte alone could be more valuable than three of Miller -- that it shook the baseball world. Atlanta had earlier traded Jason Heyward's final year before free agency to St. Louis for Miller, and it turned that one year into a very good year from Millerand all of this. It was quite the shell game.

(1)交易發生背景
24歲的Shelby Miller當年雖然傳統勝敗數據不好看(6-17,國聯敗投王),但是他的防禦率在209.1局中是傑出的3.02。我們必須讚揚Dave Stewart不管勝敗,正確的評估這位好手價值的舉動,但為了獲得他,響尾蛇實在付出太多太多了。
交易主菜Dansby Swanson是2015年狀元,排名BA百大第17,最大的賣點是優異的守備與水準以上的打擊能力;Aaron Blair是2013年首輪新秀,排名BA百大60,擁有多樣的變化球和不錯的控球;最後Inciarte是已經在大聯盟證明過自己的即戰力,他擁有出色的守備(+29DRS)與聯盟平均的打擊能力(WRC+100),這是一個明星外野手會擁有的能力。
響尾蛇在交易前一天剛正式宣佈簽下賽揚強投Zack Greinke,因此可以理解他們想要Win-Now的決心。但即使在Miller健康的情況下,擁有五年控制權的Inciarte也可能三年的Miller擁有更多的價值。當年勇士用合約到期的Jason Heyward就換來Miller,在他一年優異表現後就足以將他賣到這麼高的價錢,這根本不是交易,而是詐騙。

Were the takes good or bad?
My friends, they were spicy. Now-Rays analyst Jeff Sullivan, then at FanGraphs, said it was "a clear, obvious mistake," MLB Network insider Ken Rosenthal quoted an executive who said it was "the worst trade I've ever seen," and ESPN's Keith Law wrote that the cost was "comically high," and, well, you get the idea. Baseball Twitter has rarely been so aligned on anything, or so correct.

(2)交易當時評價
很罕見的,眾多寫手和分析家的看法驚人的一致。FG的Jeff Sulivan表示「這是毫無疑問且明顯的錯誤」;ESPN的Keith Law則形容響尾蛇付出的代價「高到有點可笑」;而大家熟悉的Ken Rosenthal則給了一個很恰當,事後也被證明相當正確的評語
「這是我所看過最糟糕的交易」

And then what happened?
However poorly you think this might have gone for Arizona, it ended up beingworse. If Miller had pitched well and if it had made the postseason, you might not mind what you'd given up. That didn't happen, obviously. Miller's first year in the desert was dreadful (6.15 ERA in 101 innings), and the D-backs lost 93 games. The next year, he required Tommy John surgery before the end of April. Miller's total Arizona career: 139 innings, 6.35 ERA. After posting an 8.59 ERA for Texas in 2019, he's currently unsigned. He's still only 29 years old.
Blair never panned out, but Swanson has become the starting shortstop on a playoff Atlanta team, though he's yet to have the true breakout we've been expecting. Inciarte won NL Gold Glove Awards in each of his first three seasons in Atlanta, compiling 10 WAR.

(3)交易後續影響
真實的情況比你能想得到最差的還更差。如果追求Win-Now的響尾蛇能拿到狀況正常的Miller並打進季後賽,他們可能不會在乎失去了什麼。但Miller來到響尾蛇首年102局中防禦率是悲慘的6.35,他們還輸了93場。隔年他在四月就開了TJ,之後在18年被Non-Tender。他在19年於遊騎兵繳出8.59的防禦率之後就被釋出,到現在為止再也沒有簽下過大聯
盟合約。
相反地,Ender Inciarte在轉隊後表現依然傑出,2016-18年連續三年奪下金手套,並且在17年繳出單季200安,入選明星賽的優異表現。雖然他在19、20年表現都不佳,但是另一名主菜Swanson的貢獻足以抵銷他的衰退。這位完成度極高的年輕好手在被選中二年後就登上大聯盟,雖然一開始打擊表現不佳,但是堅實的守備讓他每年都可以貢獻1.5左右的WAR。2020年他的打擊總算有所突破,打出110WRC+外帶2WAR。明顯的,今年MVP-18的Swanson正在朝明星游擊手進步。Blair雖然變成空氣了,但是Swanson/Inciarte總共為球隊打進15.8WAR,比Miller三年間累積的0.7WAR多了二十倍以上。

Would each team do it again?
You don't even need to ask that question about the Braves. Stewart lost his job as Arizona's GM less than a year later, so probably not. (In 2017, he said that while he thought Miller would do better in Arizona, he did regret tradingSwanson.)

(4)如果可以回到過去,交易雙方會反悔嗎?
實際上這問題根本不需要考慮,勇士當然會選擇再來一次。而響尾蛇方面,總管Stewart在作出這筆交易之後隔年就被炒了,我們還需要多說些什麼嗎?

總算翻完整個系列了,說真的以評估交易來說,這種馬後砲的分析其實對評估GM能力沒什麼用。就像許多版友所說,新秀養成是非常不確定的東西,或許某個新秀在某隊可以長成明星,在另一隊卻會變成大誤;又或是像Goldy一樣,從選秀第8輪長成MVP選手。不僅交易當下的取捨,未來養成及傷病因素也會影響交易的成敗。但是,在現在再次回顧這些交易,看著當年那些正確或是錯誤的評估和期待,追蹤著球隊或達成他們的目標或不幸墜落,不也是相當迷人的事情嗎?
感謝各位耐心的閱讀,我們下次再見。

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jn9999902/10 09:25推系列,辛苦了

yejcl02/10 09:25推 感謝分享

※ 編輯: TRosenthal (223.136.98.160 臺灣), 02/10/2021 09:28:32

aborwang02/10 09:42

lanver122002/10 09:55

jet11310202/10 10:06這筆根本是亞利桑納大劫案XD 血虧

jones21027202/10 10:14推這系列

kk202502/10 10:45辛苦了

phenom4202/10 10:53世紀血案

axyl02/10 10:58推 謝謝

※ 編輯: TRosenthal (223.137.65.132 臺灣), 02/10/2021 11:10:33

ntubuta02/10 11:10推推 這系列看了好懷念 辛苦了

kamihio02/10 11:19史萬森那時候還不算養起來吧 算是勇士養成功

fountainNess02/10 11:57當年選秀季末賣掉,所以蛇確實沒什麼培養Swanson

fountainNess02/10 11:59但他選秀時就是高地板評價,現在也沒有太大突破

whhw02/10 12:16蛇蛇...

HuanYuWu02/10 12:21

tigertiger02/10 12:44這筆交易只是話題熱,球員後來也都只是配角吧......

這篇重點是蛇用大筆資源換到的是空氣,況且200安的明星CF也沒有配角到哪裡去啦

Scherzer3102/10 13:22史萬勝和阿鐵後來都站穩勇士輪值啊 光這點就夠讓蛇蛇

Scherzer3102/10 13:22捶心肝了

borriss02/10 14:03 Stewart自己也算個大投手了 到底看到了什麼

bkm102/10 14:09推推

mej4253002/10 14:33

grizz23302/10 15:03推 這系列真的經典

kingwei52002/10 15:07阿鐵站穩勇士CF好幾年,還進過AS

kingwei52002/10 15:08史萬勝也有機會成為明星游擊,雖然都不是什麼大咖

kingwei52002/10 15:09但是對比之下,這交易根本是大劫案了XD

catsondbs02/10 15:32謝謝 推原PO還加更新2020年數據

※ 編輯: TRosenthal (42.77.152.149 臺灣), 02/10/2021 15:43:01

MgmbhPigHead02/10 16:23

scatman02/10 16:24先不管史萬勝有沒有達到外界對他的期望,光Miller的表現

scatman02/10 16:25就足以讓響尾蛇賠慘了

phoenix28602/10 16:51蛇自己有金手套阿美站游擊了 所以史萬聖還好吧

phoenix28602/10 16:52雖然阿美也有缺陣 但是那時Marte出來也有扛住

phoenix28602/10 16:53倒是阿鐵比較傷一點 AJP實在太痛了

Parazicecum02/10 16:56最主要是換到什麼啊 這筆交易最經典的還是在雪碧後來

Parazicecum02/10 16:57的表現實在太驚人了

Parazicecum02/10 16:59然後這兩年史萬勝有開竅的跡象 如果明年開始長成每年

Parazicecum02/10 17:0020HR的SS 那蛇真的很虧

l71147002/10 17:48對系列翻譯文

l71147002/10 17:48

xd98702/10 18:11

turkeyma02/10 18:11史萬勝距離對狀元的期待是還有一些空間

gundam0002/10 18:16Swanson在勇士長的起來 在蛇不一定 所以蛇不會虧啊

蛇拿Swanson換了空氣,代表只要養起來的機率不是0,蛇就是虧的。我們還沒有討論Inci arte呢

kingwei52002/10 18:56樓上你都說不一定了XD

kingwei52002/10 18:56這筆交易還說蛇蛇不虧是……

kingwei52002/10 19:00史萬勝如果未來幾年能保持OPS在0.8左右

kingwei52002/10 19:00蛇蛇真的欲哭無淚了

sikerkuaitai02/10 19:05推 辛苦了

※ 編輯: TRosenthal (223.137.65.132 臺灣), 02/10/2021 19:09:32

ParkChanWook02/11 00:21Miller真的廢到笑

Afae02/11 00:51top 1還養不出來 機率很低呀

onime070402/11 05:27Top1 養不出來的例子應該是蠻多的啦...

bh96260302/11 05:28這個操作當時看起來還不至於極爛 只是沒想到Shelby會爛

bh96260302/11 05:28成這款

Yuriceratops02/11 10:33要不是紅鳥Taveras前一年季後酒駕弄死自己這筆可能

Yuriceratops02/11 10:33也不會發生

kingwei52002/11 10:35真的不至於極爛嗎??

bh96260302/11 13:35現在看當然是極爛啊 可當時Shelby Miller至少是中段輪值

bh96260302/11 13:37當時看這包頂多是代價不低 還是有人期待拿其他雜魚可以

bh96260302/11 13:37換到便宜的中段SP

hongchanghsu02/11 14:35

polanco02/11 15:18

fricsay02/11 15:59捲毛光是靠臉賣票就賺了

kingwei52002/11 18:10交易當然也要看之後的發展,但結果來說蛇蛇是虧大了

Tokuseki02/12 14:43推系列