[外絮] 擺爛坦好的搶狀元需要幾勝呢？少於25勝

擺爛坦好的搶狀元需要幾勝呢？少於25勝

https://tinyurl.com/4bachzmm
Zach Kram, The Ringer
11/3發佈的文章，雖然晚了但內容還不錯。

“Losing teams are about to tankardhis season,” our Kevin O’Connor wrote. The Athletic’s John Hollinger observed that after Wembanyama’s
spectacular showing in Vegas, “tanking just became cool.” One general
managerold ESPN that the French teenager would spark “a race to the
bottom like we’ve never seen.”

看完Wembanyama’s在拉斯維加的爆棚表現後，Hollinger觀察到，「這季輸球的球隊要擺爛坦好」，「坦好開始變得吸引人了。」

一位球隊GM表示這位法國的年輕人會引發了「前所未見的逐底競爭」

As a reminder, the NBA flattened its lottery odds in 2019. Now, teams with
the three worst records have the same reduced chance of landing the top pick.Overall, the new odds made it so that the three worst teams (especially the
worst two) are less likely to win the lottery, while teams 4-13 (especially
those in the 6-9 range) are more likely to win the lottery than before.

2019年，NBA壓低了樂透的機率，現在戰績最爛的三隊有相同機率獲得前段順位籤。
總體來說，新的賠率讓最爛三隊（特別是最爛和次爛）比較難贏得樂透，排名倒數4-13名（特別是6-9之間的）更有機會贏得樂透。

新和舊樂透機率
https://i.imgur.com/OGFoMkS.png

The model shows there’s very little difference in no. 1 pick equity below 25
wins:
* At 10 wins, a team has a 14.0 percent chance to land no. 1.
* At 15 wins, it’s also at 14.0 percent.
* At 20 wins, it’s at 13.8 percent.
* At 25 wins, it’s at 11.6 percent.
* At 30 wins, it’s at 7.7 percent.
* At 35 wins, it’s at 2.7 percent.
* At 40 wins, it’s at 0.6 percent.

少於25勝的機率沒差太多

10勝 14.0%
15勝 14.0%
20勝 13.8%
25勝 11.6%
30勝 7.7%
35勝 2.7%
40勝 0.6%

https://i.imgur.com/Ozs9tCN.jpg

Beyond 25 and especially 30 wins, each additional victory carries a heftier
cost. But there’s minimal penalty before teams get to that point. Heck, at
10 wins, a team has a maximum 14 percent chance to win the lottery, and at 21wins (more than double!), it still has a 14 percent chance after rounding.

超過25勝特別是30勝，每多1勝會帶來更多的成本。在那之前，球隊沒有什麼劣勢。

21勝（多出兩倍！）的球隊4四捨五入後跟10勝的球隊都有14%的機率獲得狀元。

This breakdown explains why the teams projected to finish among the league’s
worst shouldn’t sweat their surprise early wins—they’re a long way from
the 25-win mark, where wins actually start to hurt. It also illustrates why
the most egregious tanking examples we see this season might not come via a “race to the bottom,” but rather from teams on pace for 35(ish) wins who
throw in the towel during March and April. Every additional win from 30-35
costs a whole percentage point of predicted no. 1 pick odds.

球隊不需要過於擔心季初的勝場，距離25勝還有一段距離。
這也解釋了最令人吃驚的坦好例子不是來「逐底競爭」
而是3-4月取得35勝之間的球隊（放棄季後賽）。

30到35勝之間的每場贏球，會降低1%抽到狀元籤

Extra wins used to be much more damaging to a team’s no. 1 pick hopes,
before the league flattened the lottery distribution. For instance, with the
new lottery system, the difference in no. 1 pick odds between 10 wins and 25
wins is just 2.4 percentage points; under the old system, that difference was13.8 percentage points—in other words,ix times more costly.

過去在聯盟壓低了樂透的分配前，多的勝場對狀元籤造成極大的破壞。
例如，在新的樂透機制下，10勝和25勝獲得狀元籤的差別，差別只有2.4%。舊的機制下，兩者的差異為13.8%，成本高於6倍。

The same pattern also applies to teams hoping for either the first or second
pick this season—if they also think that guard Scoot Henderson is a
generational prospect. (By definition, can a draft class have multiple “
generational” prospects?) Once again, under the new system, wins don’t
really start to hurt a team’s chances until the mid-20s.

同樣的模式也可套用在想要狀元或榜眼的球隊，如果他們覺得後衛 Scoot Henderson 未來發展不錯。
在新的機制下，20多勝以前的贏球不太會傷害球隊的機率。
https://i.imgur.com/imoeU6J.jpg

Yet the vast majority of tanking’s value comes from the greater possibility
of landing a top pick, because those selections areo much more impactfulthan the rest. And it’s important to remember that, in the new system, no
team has aoodhance at the no. 1 pick. Unless they have multiple picks
from trades, even the very worst teams have only a 14 percent chance to win
Wembanyama’s services.

坦好的最大價值來自獲得更多機率抽到前段順位籤，因為他們比其他更有影響力。
記住，在新的機制下，沒有一支球隊有「好的機會」獲得狀元籤，除非他們有很多交易來的選秀籤，就算是最爛的球隊也只有14%得到Wembanyama。

心得：
別擔心啦～
爵士還有16勝～

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