[情報] ESPN預測 村上80M 岡本36M 今井135M

ESPN記者Kiley McDaniel一年一度的FA預測
https://reurl.cc/aM5MmY

年份 總額 入札金
5.今井達也 6年 135M 22.125M
10.村上宗隆 5年 80M 13.875M
21.岡本和真 3年 36M 6.925M

Kiley McDaniel給的評語

今井達也

Imai likely gets the biggest deal of any foreign professional this winter and is more of a solid No. 2 or No. 3 starter with some risk to get there than a potential ace, but his age and the lack of a qualifying offer will help bring up theamount teams are willing to pay for him. Imai will be subject to the posting system; the posting fee for this projected contract would be just over $22 million, paid to his NPB club, for an all-in cost of just over $157 million ($26.2M AAV).

今井很可能會成為今年冬天所有海外球員中拿到最大合約的那一位，雖然他更像是一名穩定的二號或三號先發投手，而非潛力十足的王牌，但他的年齡以及身上沒QO，將讓各隊願意開出更高金額

A big selling point on Imai is his cratering walk rate, going from a BB/9 of 5.1 to 4.1 to 3.6 to 2.5 over the past four seasons, punctuated by his 2025 line: 163⅔ IP and a 1.92 ERA. Imai is 5-foot-11 and throws from a lower slot, so he creates a flat plane, excellent for swings and misses at the top of the zone for his 93-97 mph four-seam fastball that hit 99 mph last season. His miss rate on the pitch wasn't elite because he didn't throw it at the top of the zone very often, but that's something that can be fine-tuned in the big leagues.

今井的一大賣點，是他逐年明顯改善的保送率

過去四年他的BB/9從 5.1 → 4.1 → 3.6 → 2.5，進步幅度驚人

2025年他投出163又2/3局、防禦率1.92的成績

今井身高約180 公分，採用較低的投球出手點，因此能製造出平坦的投球軌跡，這讓他的四縫線快速球（93–97英里，最高達99英里）在好球帶上緣非常具有揮空效果

不過他的這顆速球揮空率尚未達到頂級水準，主要是因為他並不常把球投在上緣；這部分進入大聯盟後仍有微調空間

Imai has an above-average splitter, but his slider is a more interesting topic.His slider doesn't slide: It averages arm-side movement, like Trey Yesavage's, so it can be an effective pitch even if it's unusual to see (especially when paired with a splitter and above-average fastball velocity, like Yesavage does). There's some conventional wisdom in baseball that a backup slider is the best pitch in baseball (because nobody knows when a pitcher will misthrow the pitch like that), but that's meant as a one-off, not a recurring quality to shoot for.

今井的指叉球品質在平均之上，但更值得注意的是他的滑球

他的滑球其實「不太滑」，反而平均有向投手手臂方向（arm-side）的移動，類似Trey Yesavage的滑球，雖然這樣的球路不太常見，但當與指叉球和高於平均的速球結合時，能形成相當有效的配球組合

棒球界有句戲言：「最強的滑球是失投的滑球」，因為打者根本預測不到那種誤差，但這句話通常是玩笑，並不是投手應該刻意追求的特性

You could question Imai's size or fastball miss rate or shorter track record ofelite command, but the biggest concern teams have is if his slider will play inthe big leagues for the long term. It played well this season, with a 45% miss rate and .212 xwOBA, both well better than MLB average for a slider. These qualities add up to both uniqueness in Imai's shapes and release traits as well as adjustability due to his improving command: Some teams see these two qualities as the secret to projecting longevity and improvement with pitchers.

外界可能會質疑今井的體格、速球揮空率，或是他頂級控球能力的樣本仍不夠長，但球團最大的疑慮在於——他的滑球是否能在大聯盟長期發揮作用

今年這顆滑球表現優異，揮空率達 45%，預期加權上壘率（xwOBA）僅 .212，遠優於MLB平均

這些特質顯示出今井在球質變化與出手機制上的獨特性，再加上不斷提升的控球能力，使他具備可調整性與成長潛力；部分球隊甚至認為這正是評估投手長期穩定與進步的關鍵

Every team would love to land a steady midrotation starter on a deal where halfof it will take place in his 20s. If I miss this projection by $25 million or more, it'll probably be because he got more money, not less.

任何球隊都夢想能簽下一位正值巔峰期、能穩定擔任先發輪值中段的投手

若這份合約最終與預測金額相差超過 2,500萬美元，那極可能是因為他拿得更多，而非更少

村上宗隆

Murakami missed being age-eligible to be posted last winter by a few months. His posting process has been anticipated since he burst onto the scene in 2022 andhit 56 home runs in his age-22 season in Japan. Since then, a combination of injuries, positional questions and contact issues has dampened evaluators' enthusiasm a bit.

自他在 2022 年以22歲之齡在日本擊出 56 支全壘打、震撼球界以來，他的入札挑戰美職就備受期待

不過，隨著近年出現的傷病、守備位置疑慮，以及contact問題，外界對他的評價熱度略有下降

On the bright side, Murakami is a left-handed hitter with massive raw power: His 90th percentile exit velos would've been fifth in MLB, his maximum exit velo would be 12th and his hard-hit rate would be first. On the other hand, he's probably a long-term first baseman (but hasn't really played there before), his contact rates would be among the worst in MLB and he has faced lesser velocity in NPB. Some evaluators think his contact rate could improve -- even while facing better pitchers in the U.S. -- if he can make some mechanical/approach adjustments, but that's obviously speculative.

好的一面是，村上是一名擁有驚人力量的左打者：若把他今年日職數據放在美職比，他的擊球初速可排在MLB第5名，最大擊球初速第12名，而強勁擊球率更將是全聯盟第1名

不過另一方面，他可能最終只能長期鎮守一壘（但實際上一壘經驗並不多），他的contact%若換算到MLB水準會屬於聯盟後段班，而且他在日本職棒所面對的球速普遍偏慢

部分球探認為，若他能調整打擊機制與選球策略，即使面對美職更強的投手，他的contact%仍有改善空間，但這終究只是推測

The bull case is that Murakami's combination of elite exit velos, hitting from the left side, having some defensive value in the infield and being in his mid-20s is rare enough on the free agent market to get him an eight-figure AAV over afive- or six-year deal, with some execs assuming the total outlay plus posting fee will eclipse $100 million, possibly by a big margin. It'll take a team with that perspective of Murakami to get to that number because other evaluators see a risky, one-dimensional player here.

對村上的樂觀預測是：他結合了頂級擊球初速、左打優勢、一定的內野防守價值，以及仍在二十多歲的年齡，這樣的條件在自由球員市場上極為罕見，足以讓他拿到年均八位數美元（AAV超過1,000萬美元）、為期五到六年的合約

有些球團高層甚至認為，連同入札金在內，總金額可能超過 1億美元，甚至遠高於此

但要達到這個價位，前提是球隊必須相信村上的長期價值；不少球探仍視他為高風險、偏單一面向的打者

A reasonable expectation is Murakami can be an immediate home run threat with asolid walk rate but a low average and not much in the way of baserunning or defensive value -- maybe Kyle Manzardo/Matt Wallner on the lower end, Spencer Torkelson as a medium comp and Brent Rooker as the hopeful outcome. The above projected contract might look weird for that set of comps, and there are a number of teams that wouldn't go over $50 million for Murakami, but there are also not many mid-20s position players on the free agent market with a clear carrying tool andno QO; these sorts of players demand a high price on the trade market if they're even available. A comp that comes up is Joey Gallo, who most fans think was always a bad player, but he did post 4.4 WAR in his age-27 season, and next year will be Murakami's age-26 season.

合理的預期是：村上進入美職後會立刻成為具威脅性的長打砲手，具備不錯的保送能力，但打擊率偏低，跑壘與守備貢獻有限

若要找比對選手，低標可參考Kyle Manzardo、Matt Wallner，中間層級是 Spencer Torkelson，而理想情況則是 Brent Rooker

以這樣的比較基準來看，先前提到的合約金額或許顯得偏高，部分球隊不會為村上開出超過5,000萬美元，但考慮到自由市場上極少有年僅二十多歲、具備明確核心技能且沒有QO的打者，這類球員在交易市場上往往要價極高

有球探將他與Joey Gallo相提並論——雖然許多球迷認為Gallo是失敗例子，但他在27歲那季仍打出4.4 WAR；而明年村上將滿 26歲

Remember Yoshinobu Yamamoto went for almost double of many of his pre-offseasoncontract projections with those same market factors also on his side, though he's a starting pitcher. Murakami is hitting the market 3½ years younger than Masataka Yoshida was as a free agent with a similar amount of defensive and baserunning value, and Yoshida got $90 million from the Red Sox. I'm striking a bit of a balance with my projection, but I could see Murakami's ultimate deal being around $50 million or well over $100 million (before posting fee), with the higher number more likely.

要記得山本由伸去年獲得的合約金幾乎是季前預測的兩倍；在市場條件相似的情況下，他最終簽下天價合約（雖然他是先發投手）

村上進入自由市場時，比吉田正尚還年輕3年半，兩者在守備與跑壘價值上相近，而吉田當時從紅襪拿到9,000萬美元

綜合考量後，我預估村上的最終合約可能在5,000萬美元到超過1億美元之間（不含入札金），而更高金額的情況更為可能

We can profile the sorts of teams that will be the most enthusiastic bidders. Teams with big payrolls that also highly value exit velo and age might see this gamble as an enticing one: The Yankees are one team that fits on both counts and the Cubs could fit as well. Chicago has Kyle Tucker hitting free agency along with Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Nico Hoerner entering walk years, while Matt Shaw,Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara and Jonathon Long are battling for long-term spots, so the Cubs could add Murakami to that group to get some time at the four corner spots and DH.

接下來可以預測哪些球隊最有可能積極參與競標：

那些擁有龐大薪資空間、又重視擊球初速與年齡潛力的球隊，會特別對村上感興趣

洋基是符合這兩項條件的球隊之一，小熊也同樣合適

芝加哥目前預計Kyle Tucke將成為自由球員，Ian Happ、鈴木誠也與Nico Hoerner也即將進入合約年；同時，Matt Shaw、Moises Ballesteros、Owen Caissie、Kevin Alcantara、Jonathon Long等年輕球員正在競爭長期位置

因此小熊若引進村上，可讓他在一、三壘及指定打擊輪替出賽，補強陣容深度

岡本和真

Like Murakami, Okamoto primarily played third base in NPB and likely moves to first base in short order in MLB. Unlike Murakami, Okamoto has played a lot of first base, so there will be less of a breaking-in period as he's also getting used to big league pitching. Okamoto has a track record of strong on-base percentages in Japan, though some evaluators think he could be challenged by the higher velocity in MLB. He has plus raw power and an excellent feel for getting to it ingames, giving him some ceiling if his contact rates in MLB are good enough. A right-handed-hitting (likely) first baseman who will turn 30 next June and has nobig league experience is still a bit of a risk without a ton of ceiling, but Okamoto is a good bet to be a solid contributor, with a chance to be more if it all translates.

和村上宗隆一樣，岡本和真在日本職棒主要守三壘，不過若轉戰美職，預計很快就會改守一壘

只不過不同的是，岡本過去已經有相當多一壘守備經驗，因此他在適應大聯盟投手的同時，不需要太長的守備過渡期

岡本在日本的生涯中一向擁有穩定的上壘率紀錄，儘管有部分球探認為他可能會受到美職更快球速的挑戰

他具備長打力量，也擁有出色的比賽解讀能力，若能在美職維持足夠的Contact，仍有相當高的上限

雖然作為一名右打的一壘手、且明年六月將滿30歲、又尚未有美職經驗的球員，仍帶有一定風險、潛力有限

但整體而言，岡本依舊被視為一位可靠的即戰力打者，若順利適應環境，他甚至有機會成為超出預期的戰力

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