Fw: [心得] The Disciplined Trader 紀律的交易者

※ [本文轉錄自 Stock 看板 #1XAEp9mn ]

作者: zon (Zon) 看板: Stock
標題: [心得] The Disciplined Trader 紀律的交易者
時間: Fri Aug 27 21:46:46 2021

閱讀The Disciplined Trader™: Developing Winning Attitudes by Mark Douglas（
台譯：紀律的交易者）一書，嚴格來說學不到什麼高深的投資心法或技巧，它的價值建立在一場讀者與自己的對話。因為本書提出的理念就是了解自己→定義規則→執行規則，至
於規則是什麼，因人而異(*)，因為每個人的籌碼不一，能承受的風險壓力本來就不一樣。

在簡短的主動投資經驗過程中，Value Investing → Buy and Hold一直是我堅持的投資
方式。惟信心不堅，在投機股票（SPAC / Meme / 雞蛋水餃股）大流行的時候，隨便買隨便賺，即使股票體質不好，也會自動自發的幫所選的股票找理由，然後越賠越買，最後躺平。這個時候紀律的交易者這本書映入我的眼簾，覺得很有收穫。因為本書很薄，所以我挑了英文版本閱讀，底下感想若理解有誤，還請大家包含。

(*)本書是有提及明顯的規則數字，如跌幾%就要賣掉，但因為公司性質的不同，我不覺得能通用，需要持股的投資者自行判斷。

加了螢光筆重點的好讀網誌版本：
https://www.zoncheng.com/2021/08/0415-disciplined-trader-developing.html

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CHAPTER 1 - Why I Wrote This Book

..., from my trading experiences, observations, and research, I have
discovered that all traders—both winners and losers—seem to share some very
common experiences. Either in the beginning or at some point early in their
trading career, all traders experience confusion, frustration, anxiety, and
the pain of failure. The few traders who pass through this phase to
accumulate wealth are those who eventually confront and work through some
very difficult psychological issues about what it means to be a trader, and
this process of realization and change normally takes several years, even forthe best of them.

感想：作者認為大部份股市交易者，無論是的贏家或是輸家，在投資生涯的早期，都背負著心理壓力。會列出這一點是因為我早期採指數型投資，所以沒有感受過任何壓力；主動投資的初期又遇到大順風，不但沒有壓力，還巴不得所有現金都投進去；逆風時，看著利潤逐漸歸零，雖然沒蝕到本，但那種感覺不會是快樂。
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This confidence would naturally develop as people learned to trust themselvesto do whatever needed to be done, without hesitation. As a result of this
kind of self-trust, they would no longer need to fear the seemingly
unpredictable and erratic behavior of the markets. However, the main point I
am making here is that the process of change that took place was in the
mental environment and psychological makeup of each individual trader; the
markets didn’t change, the tools that were used didn't change, the trader
did.

作者認為當投資者個人的心法或是紀律建立起來後，就能有信心去面對無法預期的外部環境。因為會一直改變的其實是投資人本身的心理。
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..., the learning process and the kind of personal transformation that was
necessary to enable me to write this book was distinctly different from the
kind of learning process I experienced as a trader to realize why a book likethis needed to be written. One learning process was chosen and the other was
forced.

What I mean by forced is, I had to lose my house, my car, and practically
everything else I owned to learn some of the ways in which I needed to changemy perspective to operate in the trading environment effectively. Losing all
my possessions was a complete life-altering experience, an experience that
taught me a lot about the nature of fear and the debilitating effects it has
on a person’s ability to trade effectively.
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Why deal with anything if the next trade can make you rich? All the traders Iknew, including myself, were affected by this type of “big-trade”
mentality. In fact, my big-trade mentality was so pervasive that I would
refuse to take profits of $500 or $750 in many trades even when I knew that’
s all there was to be made. This may sound absurd, but I wouldn't take
profits of such small amounts, because, at that time, it felt as if the
market was insulting me by offering such paltry sums compared to what I
needed or expected.

感想：曾經是少年股神的作者曾經在爆富之後也因因投資失利走向破產。讓我想起市場順風的時候，我甚至把部份投機／跟風的股票當彩券，就算每日產生的小額的損失我也不在乎，因為本夢比好高的，每天打開帳戶，總額還是上漲 – 但轉為逆風時，就完全不是這麼一回事了……即使我有作風險控管，即使這些投機股票的佔比不到我總金額的5%，但損
失的事實，不會改變。

自我反省時，甚至我覺得靠著Lifeismoney版省下一些小錢的我，根本愚蠢。

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CHAPTER 2 - Why a New Thinking Methodology?

The choice is you can either adapt or continue to experience some very
painful lessons. A quick hint: the intensity of your emotional discomfort andpain you experience as a trader is an excellent indication of how much you
will have to change to trade without fear and be consistently successful.

感想：交易的過程並非一帆風順，過程中的痛苦都是你成長的來源。雖然看著像是一句廢話，但親身體驗後，才能明白並非虛言。
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CHAPTER 5 - Prices Are in Perpetual Motion with No Defined Beginning or Ending

This is very much different from the market environment where you can be a
passive loser. Once you put on a trade, you have to actively participate to
end your losses. You don’t need to do anything to continue to lose, and the
market could go against your position indefinitely.

感想：這段話個人覺得非常有趣 - 當你投資後，一旦失利，除非主動的去停損，不然這場讓你心痛的旅程，就算歸零，也會留在你的記憶裡，影響你後續的決策，不會結束。。

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CHAPTER 6 - The Market Is an Unstructured Environment

The typical trader will do most anything to avoid creating definition and
rules because he does not want to take responsibility for the results of his
trading. If he knows exactly what he is going to do and under what
conditions, then he would have something by which to measure his performance,thus making himself accountable to himself. This is exactly what most tradersdon’t want to do, preferring instead to keep their relationship with the
market somewhat mysterious.

This creates a real psychological paradox for traders, because the only way
to learn how to trade effectively is to make oneself accountable by creating
structure; but, with accountability comes responsibility. The typical trader
desperately wants to make money, but he has to do it in a way where there is
no direct connection between what he does and the outcome that it produces,
thereby avoiding responsibility if things don’t turn out satisfactorily.

To develop a plan, you have to anticipate events to some extent relative to
the depth of your plan. When you plan your trades in advance, you are puttingyour vision of the future and creative abilities on the line, so to speak,
and making yourself accountable to yourself.

Your plan either works or it doesn’t; you either have the ability to execute
your plan or you don't. In any case, it is your plan and your ability to
follow it and, therefore, it is difficult to shift responsibility and lay theblame somewhere else if things don’t work out.

感想：記得我有一段時間會不想打開帳戶的App，也就是大家常說的刪App. 我個人認為健康的交易當然不是整天死盯著帳戶或每個標的漲跌，而該是當你願意時，能隨時從容的面對結果，對自己的交易負責。

Now, when a trader doesn't understand market behavior well enough to know
what he is going to do and under what market conditions he is going to do it-—but if at the same time, he is very attracted to the action and the
opportunities he knows exist and if he is also impatient with the learning
process—his impatience and attraction will make him feel compelled to do
something, even if he doesn’t know what he should do. How do you think the
typical trader will resolve this dilemma? He will play follow the leader, ...

If the prices have made any significant move during or at the end of the
trading day, all the crowd followers get together to find any reason or
rationale that might explain their (the market's) behavior and put it into
some understandable context. However the leaders do not feel compelled to
talk to anyone and usually don’t.

For the crowd follower, trading this way serves many functions. It keeps his
relationship with the market mysterious. If he makes money, he must have donesomething right. If he loses money, he can blame the market, which is
obviously very acceptable behavior among traders. This way he can maintain anillusion of being rational and responsible and whatever happened to him also
happened to a lot of other traders, so at least he knows he is not alone,
which then creates a sense of comradeship among competitors.

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When you win it is so pleasurable, it creates a need to repeat it and compelsyou to try again. When you follow the crowd (instead of anticipating the
crowd, which would take planning) or trade off news items, tips, or isolated
signals from technical systems, the antic-ipation of the next attempt to win
automatically produces fear and anxiety.

Why? Because, you can't define the market conditions or the decision-making
process that produced the last win, and so you can’t assure yourself of the
next.

If you don't know what you did to win the last time, you obviously don’t
know what to do to keep from losing this time. The end result is intense
anxiety, frustration, confusion, and fear. You feel out of control,
experiencing a sense of powerlessness as you are swept along by the ensuing
events and wondering what the market is going to do to you today.

感想：這一段我覺得很寫實，主要是說一般的交易者如果沒有自己的的策略，很容易就跟著所謂的”高手”（ex: 老師、顧問、大大）進行佈局。這樣的作法有很多的”好處”，
除了滿足從眾心理之外，另一方面也與自已的交易結果處於一種神秘關係。賺錢的時候當然是因為我是股神，眼光神準，賠錢的時候也”覺得好像”不用對自己的交易負責，反正
有人陪著我，我不孤單…。 而真正的老師、大大、前輩、教主，其實只是在與自己對話
，他們不理會雜音，只對自己的交易負責。

此外，一旦你跟著你心中的”高手”賺到錢，這份喜悅就會讓你下次交易的時候也採取同
樣的策略。這讓我想起2020年末至2021年初期，我追著美股三聖中Elon Musk的每句話與Cathie Wood操盤ARK基金的每筆進出。

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CHAPTER 14 - Techniques for Effecting Change

Each choice we make on a conscious level, even just to choose to redirect ourthoughts from an inappropriate belief (relative to our needs now), will startto make a neurological change in the electrical circuitry of our brain. If
you go as far as to make a choice that is inconsistent with a belief you wantto recharge and then act out of that belief, it will eventually lose its
power and consequently lose its potential to affect our behavior.

WRITING AS A TECHNIQUE TO EFFECT CHANGE

Every movement we make alters the physical landscape in some way. The more
dramatic or expressive our movements, the greater the alterations. By the
same token, every thought alters the mental landscape in some way. The more
expressive our thoughts, in other words, the more energy we generate in our
willingness to think, the greater the potential to effect some change. The
change comes from what we are willing to think. Wanting to direct your
conscious thought process toward a specific intent is what effects this
change. I have found writing is one of the most powerful tools available to
focus my thinking and effect some change I desire.

When we write it is a physicalized version of what is going on inside of our
mental environment. Your willingness to write about certain issues directs
your attention and gives the rest of the parts of your mental environment
instructions. What flows up or out of your consciousness is what is there.
Once you find out what is there, you can then direct any changes by writing
back instructions into the mental environment. This can be a very powerful
technique, depending on how much power you put into it.

感想：這一段大抵就是為什麼我撰寫與分享書摘心得文的原因，也是閱讀本書獲得的另一個收穫。除此之外，很多大大們都建議要紀錄自己的交易進出理由，這點我也是很推薦的。即使現在能輕易的從證券商的系統裡查出自己的每筆交易，但它們不會告訴未來的你，為什麼當下作了這些交易，而記憶，是會騙人的。
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CHAPTER 15 - The Psychology of Price Movement

The most fundamental component of the markets is traders. Keep in mind that
traders are the only force that can act on prices to make them move.
Everything else is secondary. What makes a market? Two traders willing to
trade, one wanting to buy and one wanting to sell, who agree on a price and
then make a trade.

感想：交易市場上最重要的組成就是每個交易者。只愛單機遊戲，不愛線上遊戲的我會進行交易，會不會無形之中，其實我參與了一場全球最大的放置型手遊？

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CHAPTER 16 - The Steps to Success

Nothing’s worse than missing a “perfect” opportunity. However, if you
could have, you would have; it’s that simple. The sooner you accept this,
the sooner you will be able to take advantage of these missed opportunities
instead of beating yourself up over them. Besides there really isn’t
anything to miss because the markets are in perpetual motion and will
continue to be until everyone agrees on value. As long as the price keeps
changing, there will always be another opportunity.

感想：選定好標的後，我通常會為標的物設下目標價。通常這會有三種結果，錯過好標的／成功抄底／估值錯誤，越攤越平。最理想的情況也許是成功抄底，但如果是第一種情況，我覺得本文提供了一個很好的心態，除非很有信心，別追高，讓我們耐心遇見下一次的"完美"吧！

STEP TWO: DEALING WITH LOSSES

Execute your losing trades immediately upon perception that they exist. When
losses are predefined and executed without hesitation, there is nothing to
consider, weigh, or judge and consequently nothing to tempt yourself with.
There will be no threat of allowing yourself the possibility of ultimate
disaster. If you find yourself considering, weighing, or judging, then you
are either not predefining what a loss is or you are not executing them
immediately upon perception, in which case, if you don’t and it turns out to
be profitable, you ate reinforcing an inappropriate behavior that will
inevitably lead to disaster. Or if you don’t and the loss worsens, you will
create a negative cycle of pain that once started will be difficult to stop.
The next error after letting a loss get out of hand is usually not taking thenext opportunity, which invariably is always a winning trade. After which, weget so angry at ourselves for passing up that opportunity that we make
ourselves susceptible to any number of other trading errors, like taking a
trade that was a tip from another trader, which invariably is always a loser.

感想：作者除了建議交易者培養勇於面對虧損的心理之外，也鼓勵交易者在造成預期損失後，迅速的處理虧損，以免養成錯誤的習慣，最終導致更多的損失。
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STEP THREE: BECOMING AN EXPERT AT JUST ONE MARKET BEHAVIOR

Keep in mind that since the market is in perpetual motion, it puts you in a
position of having to make never-ending assessments of the current risk in
relationship to the current possibilities for reward. To do this effectively,you will have to learn to observe the market as if you were not in a
position.

When you are about to enter into a position, ask yourself, by imagining, whatthe next five minutes or tomorrow (depending on your time frame) would have
to look like to validate your trade, to confirm that the trend is still
intact. Then, again, place your orders at the appropriate price in advance ofthe market's getting there.

感想：購買價格應該考慮的是明天，而不是過往績效。如果覺得往後的你面對這個價格不會後悔，那麼就出手吧！

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如果你看到這裡，可能會覺得都是老生常談或是投資ABC. 但如同我開頭說的，閱讀這本書的價值建立在一場讀者與自己的對話，看英文版對我額外的附加價值只是拉長了這場對話的時間，因為書太薄，才200多頁。對我而言，這場過程是「聽Podcast/ 看Youtube/
看心得文 / 看投資筆記…」等無法得到的，因為以上的媒介雖然傳達相同的訊息，但太
迅速就過去了，這也是現在速食社會看書的價值吧！

拋磚引玉，希望大家在投資的路上都能順心。

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