[外電] 勇士的先發陣容出了什麼問題?

這是一篇 ESPN Kevin Pelton (就是季初出把勇士排在西區14的那位仁兄)

回應網友提問的文章 因為他的分析比較算是看數據說話 我覺得可以參考一下

發表的時間是美國時間1/23所以數據不一定是最新的

"What's wrong with the Golden State Warriors' starting lineup?"

- Kevin, Los Angeles

Although the Warriors are currently 8-7, it's despite and not because
of their starting five. Among the league's 16 lineups that have played
at least 100 minutes together this season, Golden State's minus-14.6
net rating is far and away the worst, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
(Naturally, teams' most-used lineups tend to be pretty good, so 11 of
the 16 lineups have outscored their opponents while on the court.)

儘管勇士的戰績是不差的8-7(現在是8-8) 那並不是因為先發五人的貢獻

在聯盟16組打超過100分鐘的lineup中 勇士先發的-14.6 net ratings是

最差而且遙遙落後 (通常一個球隊最常使用的lineup應該蠻好 因此16組當中

的11組贏過對手)

Our first inclination with any outlier stat should be to look at
how it might be fluky. In this case, the Warriors' starters have
shot atypically poorly when on the court together. That lineup is
shooting 27% on 3s (25-of-93) even though the players in it are
shooting a collective 35.5% (97-of-273) in all other combinations.
Given we're talking about a sample of fewer than 100 3-point
attempts,that will surely even out to some extent.

我們要看看有沒有什麼離群值讓這個數據只是運氣成分造成的 勇士的先發五人

同時在場上的三分命中率只有27% (25/93) 而這五人在其他組合的三分命中率

卻是35.5% (97/273) 因為93次出手算是小樣本 之後或許某種程度會回歸平均

Still, randomness alone probably can't explain how Golden State's
success this season has been almost entirely the inverse of what
I expected. I figured the Warriors would build leads with
Stephen Curry on the court and give them back when he hit the bench.
Instead, they've been better so far with Curry on the bench and
have seen only a slight offensive drop-off without the two-time
MVP despite his offensive heroics.

我本來以為勇士會在curry在場時建立領先然後在休息的時候敗一些回去

相反的 他們目前在curry坐板凳時表現較好 而且在進攻方面下降不多

It does seem like opponents' ability to sell out defensively
against Curry is an issue. We've seen repeated use of box-and-one
defenses against him, starting with the Toronto Raptors replicating
their strategy from the 2019 NBA Finals and including former
Raptors assistant coach Nate Bjorkgren importing it to the
Indiana Pacers.

似乎對手針對curry的防守是個問題 自從暴龍2019冠軍戰開始

我們已經反覆看到box-1 前暴龍助教Bjorkgren現在也把它引進溜馬

One shocking stat about Golden State's starting five stands out
to me: Curry's usage rate with the starters is just 22%
of the team's plays, barely better than an average player.

一個讓我震驚的數據是curry在先發五人中的使用率只有22% 只稍稍比

一般平均球員好一點

In part, Curry's immense gravity is creating opportunities
for teammates to convert at high efficiency. Wiggins is
posting a .579 true shooting percentage with the starters and
James Wiseman is at .568, both far better than their overall
marks -- and, for that matter, better than Curry with the
starters (.558). Nonetheless, I think Steve Kerr has to find
more ways to keep defenses from taking Curry out of the game
with the starters given his usage rate balloons to north
of 35% as part of any other lineup.

curry強大的吸怪能力還是讓隊友提高了效率 Wiggings和先發同場時

真實命中率是.579 Wiseman是.568 遠比他們的平均水準好 也比

curry和他們在一起時好(.558)XD 儘管如此 我想Kerr應該要想辦法

避免防守方讓curry先發時碰不到球 curry在其他lineup使用率都可以

在35%以上

心得:

回想之前暴龍拿出box-1時大家有多驚訝 現在都變成常規操作了

過半場包夾也是大部分球隊的共識

大家一直覺得curry狀態不佳 事實上是他承受的防守壓力逐年增加

現在先發的offensive rating 是93 比the process時期的76人還差

這對於擁有這幾年全聯盟進攻影響力最高球員curry的球隊實在

很難讓人接受

我想之後應該會有一些lineup或打法上的調整 不然有可能會沒有

季後賽可打

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