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[問卦] 台灣人比美國人更樂觀?

看板Gossiping標題[問卦] 台灣人比美國人更樂觀?作者
clair121800
(^.^)
時間推噓 1 推:1 噓:0 →:3

本肥看到美國一個有名的智庫CSIS發表文章分析2024年以及之後的台灣局勢
這個研究有邀請台灣和美國兩邊的專家來諮詢
包括大陸封鎖台灣 入侵台灣等等方面
我發現比起美國的專家 台灣的專家好像都更加樂觀

比如說
「與美國專家相比,台灣專家認為中國在軍事上執行隔離、封鎖或入侵台灣的能力較差。」
「 71% 的美國專家認為中國願意維持高強度衝突至少一年,而受訪的台灣專家中只有
51% 認為中國可以維持這種動態行動一年以上。」
「大約 44% 的美國專家認為,中國願意在台灣衝突中對美國或聯軍引爆核武; 只有11%的台灣專家持相同看法。」
「與美國專家相比,台灣專家認為中國在軍事上執行隔離、封鎖或入侵台灣的能力較差。」


本肥有點不理解

是台灣人更懂中國 還是美國人更懂中國
台灣媒體上總是在講中國威壓 但是台灣人還覺得中國以後應該不會做的更過分
哪邊的判斷最後會被證實更準確一點
有掛?

下載文章的網址放在這裡
https://reurl.cc/97aMGv

美國和台灣專家觀點的比較也簡單谷歌翻譯一下放在下面

Key Takeaways
The results of this survey provide valuable insights into areas of
convergence and divergence in how U.S. and Taiwan experts evaluate China’s
approach to Taiwan. Key takeaways are summarized below.
這項調查的結果提供了寶貴的見解,讓我們了解美國和台灣專家如何評價中國對台政策的一致和分歧領域。 重點摘要如下。


QUARANTINE OR BLOCKADE MORE LIKELY THAN INVASION IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS

Most U.S. and Taiwan experts agreed that China currently has the
capabilities to execute a law enforcement-led quarantine and a People’s
Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan. However, most did not think
China could effectively execute an invasion.

Nearly half of the experts from Taiwan believed a quarantine is a flexible
option (i.e., Beijing could quarantine Taiwan to increase significant
pressure on the island and to prepare for an imminent blockade or invasion).
In contrast, most U.S. experts believed Beijing would only execute a
quarantine if it wanted to increase pressure on the island but did not want akinetic conflict.

Most respondents believed a blockade alone would not be sufficient to
force Taiwan’s unification. A third of the experts from Taiwan worried a
blockade would likely escalate into an invasion.
Surveyed experts believed that in the next five years, if China seeks to
coerce Taiwan, Beijing’s most likely course of action would be a law
enforcement-led quarantine of Taiwan.

If China’s goal is to force immediate unification in the next five years,
a PLA-led highly kinetic joint blockade was deemed the most likely scenario,
with 80 percent of experts assessing it to be likely.
Most U.S. and Taiwan experts did not believe Taiwan could resist a PRC
blockade for more than three months if there is no or very limited U.S.
intervention.

Only 13 percent of U.S. experts and 6 percent of Taiwan experts believed
China’s 2027 military modernization goals would impact Beijing’s decision
to quarantine, blockade, or invade Taiwan.

未來五年,隔離或封鎖的可能性比入侵更大

大多數美國和台灣專家一致認為,中國目前有能力對台灣實施執法主導的隔離和人民
解放軍 (PLA) 主導的封鎖。 然而,大多數人並不認為中國能夠有效地實施入侵。

近一半的台灣專家認為隔離是一種靈活的選擇(即北京可以隔離台灣,以增加對該島
的巨大壓力,並為即將到來的封鎖或入侵做好準備)。 相較之下,大多數美國專家認為,北京只有在想增加對台灣的壓力但不希望發生激烈衝突時才會實施隔離。

大多數受訪者認為僅靠封鎖不足以迫使台灣統一。 三分之一的台灣專家擔心封鎖可能
會升級為入侵。

受訪的專家認為,未來五年,如果中國試圖脅迫台灣,北京最有可能採取的行動是執
法主導對台灣進行隔離。

如果中國的目標是在未來五年內立即統一,那麼由解放軍領導的高度動態聯合封鎖被
認為是最有可能發生的情況,80% 的專家認為這種可能性是存在的。

大多數美國和台灣專家認為,如果美國不干預或乾預非常有限,台灣無法抵抗中國的
封鎖超過三個月。

只有 13% 的美國專家和 6% 的台灣專家認為中國 2027 年軍事現代化目標將影響北京
隔離、封鎖或入侵台灣的決定。

LOWER OVERALL TAIWAN THREAT PERCEPTIONS OF CHINA

Compared to U.S. experts, Taiwan experts viewed China as less militarily
capable of executing a quarantine, blockade, or invasion of Taiwan.

Whereas 71 percent of U.S. experts believed China would be willing to
sustain a high-intensity conflict for at least one year, only 51 percent of
surveyed experts from Taiwan believed China could sustain such kinetic
operations for more than one year.

About 44 percent of U.S. experts believed China would be willing to
detonate nuclear weapons against U.S. or coalition forces in a Taiwan
conflict; only 11 percent of Taiwan experts thought the same.

台灣對中國整體威脅的看法較低

與美國專家相比,台灣專家認為中國在軍事上執行隔離、封鎖或入侵台灣的能力較差


71% 的美國專家認為中國願意維持高強度衝突至少一年,而受訪的台灣專家中只有
51% 認為中國可以維持這種動態行動一年以上。

大約 44% 的美國專家認為,中國願意在台灣衝突中對美國或聯軍引爆核武; 只有11%
的台灣專家持相同看法。

LOWER TAIWAN CONFIDENCE IN SUPPORT FROM THE UNITED STATES OR U.S. ALLIES AND
PARTNERS

Virtually all U.S. experts were completely confident or moderately
confident the United States would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan from
a PLA invasion. Both U.S. and Taiwan experts were confident of U.S.
intervention at the high end of conflict (e.g., a blockade or invasion) but
were not as confident of U.S. intervention in the event of a quarantine.

Compared to U.S. experts, Taiwan experts were less confident in U.S.
intervention and had even lower confidence that U.S. allies and partners
would defend Taiwan. A slim majority of Taiwan experts were confident U.S.
allies and partners would intervene militarily in only two out of seven
scenarios: if China invaded or if China blockaded Taiwan after a failed
invasion.

台灣對美國或美國盟友和夥伴支持的信心下降

幾乎所有美國專家都完全相信或有一定信心美國會進行軍事幹預,以保衛台灣免於解
放軍入侵。 美國和台灣專家都對美國在衝突最嚴重時進行幹預(例如封鎖或入侵)充滿信心,但對美國在隔離時進行幹預則不那麼有信心。

與美國專家相比,台灣專家對美國幹預的信心較弱,對美國盟友和夥伴保衛台灣的信
心較低。 絕大多數台灣專家相信,美國的盟友和夥伴只會在七種情況中的兩種進行軍事幹預:如果中國入侵,或者如果中國在入侵失敗後封鎖台灣。

DYNAMICS AFTER TAIWAN ELECTIONS

Most respondents did not believe recent efforts to manage U.S.-China
tensions have changed the likelihood of a Taiwan Strait crisis. About 67
percent of U.S. experts and 57 percent of Taiwan experts believed a Taiwan
Strait crisis is likely in 2024.

If Chinese leaders perceive the Taiwan presidential election results to be
unfavorable, only about 40 percent of experts believed Beijing would wait to
act based on the new president’s policies. Over 50 percent of U.S. and
Taiwan experts believed China would not wait, but they disagreed over whetherChina’s most escalatory actions would come before or after the president’s
inauguration in May 2024.

Nearly half of the experts from Taiwan believed if Beijing views the
election results as unfavorable, the most escalatory option China would take
against Taiwan before the end of 2024 would be coercive nonmilitary action.
In contrast, most U.S. experts worried about the potential of a large-scale
military exercise encircling Taiwan, but few thought China would quarantine,
blockade, or invade the island.

Over 80 percent of U.S. and Taiwan experts believed that if Beijing
perceives the Taiwan election results as favorable to China, Beijing would
seek to improve cross-strait ties. More Taiwan experts assessed that Beijing
would shift its approach unilaterally, whereas more U.S. experts believed
Beijing would act only after the new Taiwan leader showcases goodwill toward
Beijing.

Most U.S. and Taiwan experts believed a prolonged PRC economic downturn
would either decrease or not change the likelihood of PRC use of force
against Taiwan.

台灣選舉後的動態

多數受訪者認為,近期處理中美緊張局勢的努力並未改變發生台海危機的可能性。 約
67%的美國專家和57%的台灣專家認為,台海危機可能在2024年爆發。

如果中國領導人認為台灣總統選舉結果不利,只有約 40% 的專家認為北京會等待根據
新總統的政策採取行動。 超過 50% 的美國和台灣專家認為中國不會等待,但對於中國最升級的行動是在 2024 年 5 月總統就職之前還是之後,他們存在分歧。

近半數的台灣專家認為,如果北京認為選舉結果不利,中國在2024年底前對台灣採取
的最升級的選擇將是強制非軍事行動。 相較之下,大多數美國專家擔心圍繞台灣進行大規模軍事演習的可能性,但很少有人認為中國會隔離、封鎖或入侵台灣。

超過80%的美國和台灣專家認為,如果北京認為台灣選舉結果對中國有利,北京將尋求
改善兩岸關係。 更多的台灣專家評估稱,北京將單方面改變做法,而更多的美國專家則認為,只有在台灣新領導人向北京展現善意後,北京才會採取行動。

大多數美國和台灣專家認為,中國經濟長期低迷會降低或不會改變中國對台灣使用武
力的可能性。

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