Re: [新聞] 賴清德投書華爾街日報　趙怡翔：總統該有

....

本魯有訂WSJ啦

今天世界版頭版的標題是Taiwan

讓本56節錄出來給鄉民看看

Taiwan’s Impossible Choice: Be Ukraine or Hong Kong
https://tinyurl.com/2225ewsn

By Yaroslav Trofimov and Joyu Wang July 5, 2023 12:01 am ET

TAIPEI, Taiwan—People in Taiwan have been following every twist of the war
in Ukraine. But, while their sympathy for the Ukrainian cause is
near-universal, the conclusions for the island’s own future widely diverge.

台灣人都有在追烏俄戰爭

但是從中得到的教訓卻有很大分歧

To some, the takeaway is that even a seemingly invincible foe can be defeatedif a society stands firm, an inspiration for Taiwan’s own effort to resist a
feared invasion by China. Others draw the opposite lesson from the images of
smoldering Ukrainian cities. Anything is better than war, they say, and
Taiwan should do all it can to avoid provoking Beijing’s wrath, even if that
means painful compromises.

有人覺得只要全民團結

中國就打不下來

有人看烏克蘭的城市

覺得不要打仗比什麼都好

These two competing visions will play out in Taiwan’s presidential
elections, slated for January, and shape how the island democracy revamps itsdefenses as China’s military might expands. The soul-searching inside
Taiwan, and the determination with which it will strengthen its armed forces,is also bound to affect the extent to which the U.S. will get involved
militarily should Beijing try to capture the island, home to 24 million people—and most of the world’s advanced semiconductor production capacity.

這兩種看法會影響這次選舉

台灣人有多大決心擴充軍備

也要看米國爸爸會怎麼做

...

Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen has already moved to increase the length of
compulsory military service starting next year, to one year from four months,and is boosting military spending as Taipei purchases new weapons from the
U.S., such as hundreds of Harpoon antiship missiles. While Tsai isn’t
eligible to run again, the presidential candidate from her ruling party—
current Vice President Lai Ching-te—has similarly pledged to safeguard the
island’s autonomy and resist Beijing’s growing intimidation.

EE延長了兵役

然後賴神大概也會繼續這麼做

“I don’t think anybody rational could look at this and say dialogue is
going to change Xi or the CCP,” said Vincent Chao, a former
national-security official and Lai’s spokesman, referring to China’s
Communist Party. “They see the subjugation of Taiwan as part of their
national rejuvenation, as something inherently connected to their political
legitimacy. It’s incumbent upon any candidate to be realistic about the
situation.” Ukraine, he added, has given Taiwan a “brilliant lesson” in
how to defend itself—and how to build coalitions with like-minded
democracies.

趙怡翔覺得

跟習大大或是CCP溝通沒用

所以烏克蘭是很好的示範

告訴台灣要好好保護自己

The main opposition Nationalist Party, known as the Kuomintang, holds a
different view. “We want to talk to the Chinese. We believe that we can have
a dialogue with the Chinese. That will certainly de-escalate the tension, to
make sure no accidental war, and for sure no intentional war, happens,”
Kuomintang vice chairman Andrew Hsia said in an interview before departing
on a trip to China in June, his second this year.

KMT則說要跟對岸溝通

他們相信可以降低緊張的情勢

Ukraine’s tragedy has made an outreach to Beijing even more vital, he added:
“In the past we talked about war, but now for the first time we saw in our
living rooms, on television, all this destruction. Are we ready for that? I
don’t think we are, I don’t think we are that resilient.”

夏立言說

大家都聽過談過戰爭

但是他不覺得大家真的準備好了

The Kuomintang’s presidential candidate, Hou Yu-ih, pledged this week that
he would return the compulsory military service length to four months after
improving ties with Beijing.

侯侯縮短兵役也上WSJ了

....

While the U.S. has no binding obligation to defend Taiwan and has long
maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity on the issue, President Biden
repeatedly cautioned that, unlike in Ukraine, the U.S. military would
intervene directly should China attempt to seize the island by force. Before
American troops deploy, however, the island would have to resist the first
blows on its own. So far, despite recent improvements, it is far from ready,
many U.S. officials and analysts say.

雖然美國爸爸沒有義務保護台灣

但拜爺強調美國會介入台海戰役

前提是台灣要先能自己抵抗

只是美國的軍官跟分析師

都覺得台灣根本沒有準備好

“The Taiwanese have to be committed 100%, because if they are not, there is
no reason for the U.S. or any other nation to come to their aid,” said ret.
U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute for
Aerospace Studies in Arlington, Va. “There needs to be a sense of urgency.
America is not going to spill the blood of her sons and daughters over Taiwanif the Taiwanese are not willing to wholeheartedly prosecute the defense of
their island and their people.”

美國前空軍司令說

台灣必須100%保證會打

不然美國人沒有理由犧牲美國人保護台灣

While augmented over the past year, Taiwan’s military budget is still only
2.4% of the GDP—compared with well over 3% for the U.S., Poland’s 4% and
about 5% in Israel. The professionalism and motivation of Taiwan’s military
are a particular concern, Western officials say. The island’s main officer
training school was originally established as Whampoa Military Academy in
southern China in the 1920s, with heavy reliance on Soviet instructors.
Outdated Soviet-style military culture and doctrine still persists in the
ranks, defense analysts say.

雖然這幾年台灣軍事預算有漲

但是還是很低

人家以色列或是波蘭都有4~5%

而且國軍的專業跟士氣都很差

黃埔那套都是蘇聯過時的教案

但現在還是拿來用

Despite the recent increase in the length of conscription, education
deferrals mean that most draft-age Taiwanese won’t serve the entire year
until 2028—and it remains unclear to what extent the current training of
draftees, which according to many soldiers produces few useful skills, will
be modernized.

然後雖然說兵役有延長

但是這些延長兵役的役男

五年內都不會入伍

Currently, most draftees spend their time cleaning floors and picking weeds
rather than learning how to repel Beijing’s People’s Liberation Army, said
ret. Adm. Lee Hsi-min, a former chief of Taiwan’s military who has become a
vocal critic of the island’s military preparedness.

李喜明說

大部分役男都在擦地板跟除草

“If you just do the same things for a year instead of four months, then you
have a problem and a bad reputation,” he said. “The problem is the training
content, not the training period. How you do it is much more important than
how long you do it.” The military says it is working to improve the training.

重點不在於役期長短

在於訓練內容是啥

Taiwan has also had trouble retaining its professional troops, including
highly trained Air Force pilots. Taiwan’s defense ministry said in a recent
report that roughly 20% of its career soldiers over the past five years have
decided to leave the military before their contracts were scheduled to end.
Just last year, more than 3,700 soldiers asked to quit, according to the
report.

志願役也有問題

過去幾年1/5的士兵決定提前退伍

“In the past, Taiwan’s civilians were not very close with our military
because our old military came from the outside, didn’t derive from inside
the country. There was a giant gap between civilian people and military guys,” said DPP lawmaker Wang Ting-yu, a senior member of the Taiwanese parliament’s defense committee.

“But I have to say this is an old situation,” he added, saying that, under
Tsai, Taiwan’s civilian-military relationship has transformed: “She made
the military realize you need to defend democracy.” The government, he said,
has increased pay for the troops and is modernizing the training programs, inpart by bringing in foreign instructors and sending some Taiwanese units for
exercises in the U.S.

王八千說

早期台灣人跟軍隊有隔閡

因為軍隊都是外國來的

但這是過去式

EE已經讓民眾了解到你要抗中保台

提高了預算也送人去美國受訓

These changes, however, have yet to translate into new attitudes among the
general public, where service in the armed forces holds little prestige or
appeal. Wang Chung-wei, a draftee who is heading to the military in the
coming weeks, said that he, like most young Taiwanese men, wasn’t looking
forward to the experience. “Not at all. It will be a total waste of time,”
he said, adding he would rather stay home and work in the family business. “It doesn’t matter to me if China takes over. Our families have arrived here
from China anyway.”

但這些改變並沒有讓大部分民眾改變態度

跟其他年輕人一樣

某位菜兵說他覺得當兵浪費時間

他寧願回家幫忙工作

他也不在乎是否被統一

反正他們全家之前也是從中國來的

Several other young people interviewed in Taipei’s Ximending shopping
district echoed the sentiment, saying they saw little point in sacrificing
their lives given China’s immense power.

很多西門町的年輕人

也不太想犧牲他們自己的時間

“The young people are the ones who don’t want unification with China,”
said ret. Lt. Gen. Chang Yan-ting, a former deputy commander of Taiwan’s
air force. “But if you want independence, you need to fight, and they also
don’t want to fight. Therein is the conflict.”

年輕人不想跟中國統一

但是你要獨立你要作戰

但是你又不想作戰

這就是衝突所在

節錄一些隨便翻一翻啦

後面還有提到黑熊學院(Kuma Academy)

有興趣的人可以上網自己找全文

簡單來說啦

現況就是台灣軍備鳥到爆炸

兵役延長也沒啥鳥用

年輕人不要統一但不想當兵

美國人都不太看好台灣現在的狀況

台灣是要變成香港還是烏克蘭

就等著總統大選看看

獨立報導跟讀者投書

到底哪個客觀

大家自己看著辦啦
※ 引述《nightwing (夏日浮雲)》之銘言：
: 1.媒體來源:
: NOWnews 今日新聞
: 2.記者署名:
: 邱新博
: 3.完整新聞標題:
: 賴清德投書華爾街日報　趙怡翔：總統該有的高度
: 4.完整新聞內文:
: https://i.imgur.com/S6ksfN7.jpg