Re: [新聞] 英媒: 台灣須面對可能的大量死亡案例

其實 台灣走這一步早就有端倪了

年初疫情再起時 原本大家預期是大學學測完後

可能會在一月下旬 再升三級清零 後來蘇貞昌進CDC後

沒有升三級 那時候的防疫就很明顯出現搖擺了

結果就是目前看到這樣

共存的目標是什麼 政府應該不敢明說

基本上就是 大家都可能染疫

染疫的結果 達到對病毒的自然抗體

這個過程走得慢又長 醫療量能就可以維持

但病毒不是可控的 這個目標需要人為干預

干預的結果 後面就會需要人力物力財力還有心力去維持

國外的經驗告訴我們 基本上都會走向失敗

所以另外一條路 就是趁病毒還沒變的危險前

利用台灣島嶼四面環海封閉特性 快速大量感染單一種病毒

這個結果就是醫療量能會崩潰

試算群體免疫要六成以上 台灣大概要1400萬以上感染人數

日均20萬以上感染數 大概要兩到三個月才有可能達成

這是不干預的狀況下 干預就會拖更久

由於目前沒有特效藥 所以一般藥物都是以緩解症狀為主

那些預防重症的藥 留給小孩跟老人吧 其他就別想太多了

你想想我們才有多少......這種藥物

染疫隔離 跟第一圈隔離 主要還是在控制傳播速度

目前來說之前指揮中心 在那邊3+4 基本上就是脫褲子放屁

新制感染隔7天

第一圈隔離3天後 基本上就不需要+4了(這個目前沒記錯還沒取消)

有症狀就快篩 篩完陽性就走流程

要直接就是感染7天 第一圈3天兩個標準走到底

7天關完還沒好就繼續休養

誰可以確認染疫 快篩如果需要PCR 就乖乖使用大型場館或場地

每個縣市都建立野戰醫院 不要在急診室外做了 中重症再轉醫院就好

輕症直接就是開藥跟診斷證明書(多開幾份) 然後請他回去休息

事後再持診斷證明書 跟衛生單位、勞保等申請相關文件

第一圈的隔離者 衛生單位基本上應該也無法開了

一樣就是用診斷證明書+同居證明(同戶籍)事後申請隔離書

如果提不出同居證明就是切結書或里長證明書代替

陽性在家如果症狀加劇再打119送野戰醫院 判斷是否需要轉送

野戰醫院看診所醫護願不願意加入(有染疫風險) 政府可以徵召付錢

看一天多少 不用在那邊質疑有沒有換氣設備等等

才不會在那邊閒置醫護人力

至於大量死亡案例 用點腦袋想就知道

萬分之一死亡率的話 1400萬大概會有1400個 看醫療能控制到哪裡

這毋須恐慌 活好自己就好

正常吃正常睡正常運動 均衡飲食

補給品 我個人會補充綜合維他命或B群 幫忙維持身體一些機能

畢竟有時候攝取不見得會全面 也不會想吃什麼太貴重的

就是平價 有信譽的廠商就好

戴好口罩 勤洗手 有空消毒自己周遭環境 減少不必要的活動

室內之前講過了 弄台便宜的空氣清淨機 能裝HEPA13以上的濾網

不抗病毒 但能阻絕其他不少細菌 能讓案情單純點

我也簡單準備了一點存糧跟一瓶感冒藥

剩下祝大家好運

以上均為個人心得與意見 不屬於任何立場 任何防疫資訊請以政府機關公告為主

※ 引述《caeasonfb (eason)》之銘言：
: 1.媒體來源: 每日電訊報(The Telegraph)
: 2.記者署名: Nicola Smith
: 3.完整新聞標題:
: Taiwan, hailed for its gold standard Covid strategy, now faces ‘potential for lots of deaths’
: 曾為疫情模範生的台灣現在須面對可能的大量死亡案例
: 4.完整新聞內文:
: Taiwan, hailed for its gold standard Covid strategy, now faces ‘potential
: for lots of deaths’
: As the ‘zero Covid’ stalwart flinches at China's strict omicron lockdowns,
: has it done enough to follow Singapore and South Korea's example?
: 眼見中國封城效果不彰，但要仿照新加坡及南韓，台灣做好準備了嗎?
: Within a few short weeks, Taiwan has been catapulted from a few hundred
: Covid-19 cases a day to tens of thousands. The island now faces the daunting: prospect of a vertical trajectory of infections that could trigger
: unprecedented death rates by this summer.
: 數週內，台灣單日確診數已從數百例暴增到上萬。台灣正面對像垂直彈道般的驚人感染狀況，可能在夏季前造成前所未有的死亡率。
: Anxious city dwellers are trying to carry on as normal, but restaurants, gyms: and schools are emptying out as people try to adjust to a dramatic shift from: the first two years of the pandemic, when the country was seen as one of the: world's few safe havens.
: 緊張的民眾試著正常生活，但只見餐廳健身房學校空蕩蕩。
: Taiwan successfully fought back every new outbreak and curbed infections and: deaths with a “zero Covid” strategy that, like neighbouring China, relied
: on strict border controls and lengthy quarantine on arrival.
: 過去台灣靠著跟中國一樣的邊境管制與隔離的嚴格清零政策守住了每一波感染。
: But now in the face of unprecedented surges driven by the highly contagious: omicron variant, democratic Taiwan is diverging from authoritarian China.
: 眼前面對omicron病毒，民主台灣決定走不同於專制中國的路。
: While Beijing is doubling down on its stringent “zero Covid” approach,
: Taiwan is shifting away from a suppression strategy. This week, Taipei also: condemned China’s stringent lockdowns as “cruel” – jolting video from the
: modern city of Shanghai has revealed hungry residents appealing for food, and: citizens in Hebei province being bolted into their homes.
: Rather than emulating China, Taiwan has its sights on South Korea and
: Singapore – which have successfully reduced restrictions while keeping death: rates low. But with little natural immunity and suboptimal vaccination rates: among the vulnerable, experts predict Taiwan could face a rocky ride.
: 台灣把目光放在南韓及新加坡成功解封並保持低死亡率的例子上。但專家預測不足的自然免疫率及疫苗接種率將會讓台灣走得很辛苦。
: On Thursday it breached 30,000 cases for the first time, and with an average: daily increase of 15 to 20 per cent, experts like Chase Nelson, a
: Taipei-based computational biologist, predict Taiwan could peak at around
: 200,000 infections a day.
: Only 15 per cent of the entire 23.5 million population remain unvaccinated,: but one of Taiwan’s biggest challenges lies in the alarming statistic that
: 21 per cent of over-75s have resisted the jab – many of them over fears
: about side-effects.
: That number has barely shifted since the sudden turnaround from a few dozen: cases a day to tens of thousands within a few weeks.
: “The outbreak did give a kick in the pants to some people who had been
: waiting but it doesn’t seem to be that substantial,” said Mr Nelson, who
: estimates that if the vaccine pick-up remains the same, it will take five
: months for an additional 10 per cent of over-75s to get just one dose.
: “A fraction are just not going to do it. It’s almost like they would take a: chance on something they can’t control the timing of, which is their
: infection,” he added.
: The numbers could push Taiwan closer to Hong Kong, which has seen more than: 9,300 – largely elderly – deaths for its 7.3m population, rather than
: nearby South Korea, which recently weathered more than 600,000 cases a day by: getting booster shots to more than 90 per cent of those aged 60 and above.
: While fatalities have so far remained low, experts warn that true figures are: being masked by a time lag of two to four weeks.
: 專家警告目前的低死亡率是假象，約需2-4週才會真實呈現。
: An alarming analysis last month in Taiwan’s Commonwealth Magazine estimated: that some 22,000 senior citizens could die if vaccination rates did not pick: up, basing its calculation on Hong Kong’s fatality rates.
: 台灣的天下雜誌預測，若台灣的疫苗接種率不變，以香港的死亡率推估，未來將有2.2萬長者病歿。
: For two years, Taiwan was hailed globally as a gold standard for its handling: of the pandemic, keeping deaths below 1,000 and its economy afloat, but flaws: in the country’s exit strategy risked an “underwhelming finish,” warned Mr
: Nelson.
: 過去兩年台灣被全球視為防疫模範生，但目前有缺陷的國家政策只會導致平庸的成果。: “I think it is doing some things right and some things poorly,” he said. “
: I do think it is wise to recognise that maintaining absolutely zero Covid
: with something as contagious as omicron is not a long-term viable strategy,: as is evidenced by Shanghai.”
: 面對omicron，放棄長期清零的策略正確。
: ‘Hospitals beginning to be overwhelmed’
: With vaccinations fresh, and plateauing, now was a “well-calculated” time
: to drop restrictions during an outbreak of the milder omicron variant, he
: said. This week, Taiwan’s health ministry dropped quarantine on arrival to
: seven days.
: “At the same time, Taiwan has really done this quickly and they missed an
: opportunity to say what they were planning and to prepare people for it,” Mr: Nelson added. “They have instead had this feeling of making up guidelines as: they go along… There is a lot of confusion, understandably, and I don’t
: think that has been a wise move in terms of their strategy.”
: 但台灣解封太快卻忽略宣導政策規劃並超前部署。感覺像且戰且走做出的政策指引讓人迷惑，這步走得很不明智。
: Taiwan’s testing capacity, in particular, has been pushed to its limits,
: with long queues snaking round pharmacies to obtain scarce home kits, and
: lengthy waits for PCR tests.
: 特別是台灣的檢測量能已到極限，可以看到搶買稀有快篩的人龍包圍藥局，還有長長的隊伍等著做PCR。
: “Testing capacity is being outstripped. Hospitals are beginning to show
: signs of being overwhelmed to some extent. I think that means the potential: for a lot of deaths unfortunately,” said Mr Nelson.
: 檢測量能不足、醫院被擠爆，就代表可能發生大量不幸的死亡案例。
: Professor Chan Chang-chuan from National Taiwan University College of Public: Health pointed to two major shortfalls as Taiwan sought to adjust to Covid-19: as endemic.
: 台灣的詹長權教授還指出台灣抗疫的兩大缺口: 未購買足夠給12歲以下兒童使用的BNT疫苗；未事先強化醫療體系並提供民眾足夠的自主在家隔離指引。
: One had been the failure to order enough Pfizer vaccines for the under-12s,: he said.
: Last month, Taiwan approved the use of the Moderna vaccine for children aged: 6-11, but while this mirrors similar moves in the UK and EU, the hesitancy of: the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to greenlight the shot for children: has left Taiwanese parents uncertain.
: Secondly, unlike Singapore, the authorities had not empowered the primary
: healthcare system or prepared the public enough to self-isolate and treat
: themselves at home.
: In recent weeks, the country was shaken by the deaths of a two-year-old boy: and 20-year-old woman, who had a severe reaction to the virus and were
: diagnosed too late.
: 台灣這幾週因發生2歲童及20歲女性對病毒嚴重反應及太晚確診死亡的案例而舉國震驚。: Singapore, which began the shift already last summer to treat Covid-19 like: the flu, did much groundwork ahead of time and had not experienced any deaths: among children, said Prof Chan.
: 但新加坡去年夏天開始把新冠當流感後，就因為做好基本前置部署，沒有發生任何兒童死亡案例。
: “They built a recovery from home programme step by step and gave out
: instructions to give people who are staying at home proper and timely medical: advice, like telemedicine, phone calls, consultations,” he said.
: 新加坡逐步建構了在家療程，還提供居家者適當適時的醫療建議，像是遠距醫療、電話關切、諮詢等。正因新加坡民眾就算在家也能獲得仔細的指引資訊，所以緊急醫療量能能保留給最需要的人。
: “People were educated to be careful even if at home. They have the
: information,” he added. “By doing this they reserved critical care capacity: so the most needy can be treated.”
: Taiwan was adjusting to the rapidly changing situation but needed to step up: measures to encourage the elderly to vaccinate by restricting their access to: crowded gatherings and offering more healthcare assistance to allow them to: take the jab at home, said Prof Chan.
: “In living with Covid we have to control the pandemic to a risk level that
: is acceptable.”
: 要共存，我們必須將風險控制在可接受的範圍。
: 5.完整新聞連結 (或短網址)需放媒體原始連結，不可用轉載媒體連結:
: https://tinyurl.com/5xb55r2f
: 6.備註:

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不用啦 直接衛福部+縣市名稱+新冠肺炎專責緊急醫院 每個縣市如果設立一個以上 就分第一 第二 等等 劃分區域讓民眾前往

我看的是不算那800多位神仙 我看的是這波大量感染單一種病毒的狀況 放大到千分之一就是14000 這誰都會算 會死多少不知道 重點是發生時 能控制多少 這就是醫療實力問題