[討論] 2022平價後衛對決奢華後衛

最近看到Brunson簽大約

好奇他的合約到底有沒有溢價

所以試著用PER當作標準

找跟他表現相近的人的薪水都落在哪個區間

來衡量他到底值不值得這個價錢

也順便比較所有後衛的價錢

資料說明：

1. 數據來源：
https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/players.html

2. 球員選擇：

1) 例行賽場均12分鐘以上

2) 例行賽得分超過10分

3. 比較的數據：PER

根據PER分成

主要輪替：[10,15)

主力：[15,20)

主將：>20

1. 例行賽PER [10, 15)

這個區間符合條件的人有49個

薪水的中位數是8.8M

第三個四分位是13M

這蠻符合我們對主要輪替價錢的印象

裡面超過2000萬的有三人Buddy Hield、Tim Hardaway Jr.、Gary Harris

1) Buddy Hield現在在溜馬，三分球不錯

但不是核心又領2000萬up的薪水，多少有點溢價

2月的時候還傳出溜馬要交易Buddy Hield
https://www.ptt.cc/NBA/M.1644421044.A.4FC

2) Tim Hardaway Jr.這季在躺

小牛在沒他的情況下，進了季後賽打到西決

Brunson簽約尼克後，他還是小牛主力的後衛之一

3) Gary Harris 2022有點些微貴

但目前簽了2Y/26M，也算符合了他的身價

https://www.ptt.cc/NBA/M.1656635321.A.089

Count: 49
min $1,782,621.0
25% $4,054,695.0
50% $8,849,071.0
75% $13,839,285.0
max $22,477,273.0

Player Basic Regular Playoff
Tm Salary Pos PER PER
1 Buddy Hield IND $22,477,273 SG 12.9 NaN
2 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL $21,306,816 SG 12.7 NaN
3 Gary Harris ORL $20,482,143 SG 10.9 NaN
4 Lonzo Ball CHI $18,604,651 PG 14.5 NaN
5 Eric Gordon HOU $18,218,818 SG 12.1 NaN
6 Ricky Rubio IND $17,800,000 PG 14.0 NaN
7 Evan Fournier NYK $17,142,857 SG 12.3 NaN
8 Gary Trent Jr. TOR $16,000,000 SG 14.7 12.4
9 Will Barton DEN $15,625,000 SG 13.4 9.9
10 Duncan Robinson MIA $15,560,000 SG 10.6 13.2
11 Derrick White BOS $15,178,571 SG 14.8 10.1
12 Malik Beasley MIN $14,391,964 SG 11.9 9.0
13 Marcus Smart BOS $13,839,285 PG 13.6 13.1
14 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope WAS $13,038,862 SG 12.6 NaN
15 Luke Kennard LAC $12,727,273 SG 13.3 NaN
16 Terrence Ross ORL $12,500,000 SG 10.0 NaN
17 Jordan Clarkson UTA $12,420,000 SG 14.9 19.8
18 Josh Richardson SAS $11,615,328 SG 12.8 NaN
19 Devonte' Graham NOP $11,000,000 PG 12.1 11.5
20 Reggie Jackson LAC $10,384,500 SG 12.1 NaN
21 Cade Cunningham DET $10,050,120 PG 13.1 NaN
22 Alec Burks NYK $9,536,000 SG 13.7 NaN
23 Talen Horton-Tucker LAL $9,500,000 SG 11.0 NaN
24 Jalen Green HOU $8,992,200 SG 12.5 NaN
25 Monte Morris DEN $8,849,071 PG 14.7 16.1
26 Kemba Walker OKC $8,729,020 PG 13.9 NaN
27 Seth Curry BRK $8,207,518 SG 13.7 16.4
28 Cameron Payne PHO $6,500,000 PG 13.8 3.4
29 Collin Sexton CLE $6,349,671 SG 11.2 NaN
30 Josh Giddey OKC $5,988,000 SG 13.3 NaN
31 Dennis SchrAder HOU $5,890,000 SG-PG 13.0 NaN
32 Patty Mills BRK $5,890,000 PG 10.4 10.7
33 Coby White CHI $5,837,760 PG 12.6 6.5
34 Davion Mitchell SAC $4,603,200 PG 10.8 NaN
35 Lonnie Walker IV SAS $4,447,896 SG 12.3 NaN
36 Kevin Huerter ATL $4,253,357 SG 11.9 7.7
37 Grayson Allen MIL $4,054,695 SG 12.7 10.3
38 Terence Davis SAC $4,000,000 SG 14.6 NaN
39 Chris Duarte IND $3,749,520 SG 12.3 NaN
40 Cole Anthony ORL $3,449,400 PG 13.5 NaN
41 Nickeil Alexander-Walker UTA $3,261,480 SG 10.5 66.5
42 Frank Jackson DET $3,000,000 PG 10.6 NaN
43 Tre Mann OKC $2,901,240 PG 10.2 NaN
44 Ben McLemore POR $2,389,641 SG 11.7 NaN
45 Immanuel Quickley NYK $2,210,640 PG 14.6 NaN
46 Bones Hyland DEN $2,096,880 PG 14.4 13.6
47 Garrison Mathews HOU $2,000,000 SG 11.0 NaN
48 Malik Monk LAL $1,789,256 SG 14.4 NaN
49 Kevin Porter Jr. HOU $1,782,621 PG 13.5 NaN

2. 例行賽PER [15, 20)

這個區間符合條件的人有32個

薪水的中位數是17M

第三個四分位是27M

這個表現的大多數都是球隊主力

裡面有7個超過3000萬的主將

以PER表現來說，只跟其他球隊的主力差不多

1) Russell Westbrook 4421萬

是這個區間裡薪水最高的

這季因為球隊戰術地位的下降

無法像以前一樣在例行賽刷出漂亮的數據

目前有傳出要跟KI換

不知道最後結果會怎樣

2) Damian Lillard和CJ McCollum這對兄弟

薪水分別是快3934萬和3086萬

他們這季表現跟之前有點落差

拓荒者在今年決定拆掉雙槍也在情理之中

3) Klay Thompson 3798萬

這季傷癒復出打得比以往掙扎

但是攤開數據還是能夠幫助球隊

例行賽20.4分、三分球38.5%

季後賽19分、三分球38.5%

值得一提的是

20年勇士老闆在不知道KT受傷的歸期以及回來後能剩幾成功力的情況下

跟KT簽了均薪快4000萬的薪水

那時候大家都覺得勇士不太有機會重返榮耀了

但今年的勇士完全跌破了大家的眼鏡

4) Bradley Beal 3372萬

這季表現沒有像他前兩季那麼猛

但目前已經跟巫師隊簽下五年2億5100萬的大約

放棄冠軍但是領到最多的錢 v.s. 追逐不知道有沒有的冠軍但降薪

Beal選了前者

以小市場巫師的角度來說，Beal也是不得不的選擇

5) Jrue Holiday 3013萬

以冠軍後衛來說

雖然例行賽表現普通

但季後賽是公鹿隊重要的主將

薪水也算符合自己的身價

6) 第7名的D'Angelo Russell拿3001萬

今年季後賽表現爛的印象深刻

灰狼之後不知道會不會把他換掉

7)

如果從最便宜的那幾個來看

大多數人都是新秀合約

Tyler Herro/Tyrese Maxey/Jordan Poole/Jalen Brunson這幾個賽球隊裡都是主要後衛輪替

作用差不多，這兩年也要簽新的合約

未來應該都是2000萬up的球員

Jalen Brunson今年就簽大約：4Y/104M

https://www.ptt.cc/NBA/M.1656639273.A.A48

但不知道這季的表現會不會只是曇花一現

Count: 32
min $1,802,057.0
25% $6,580,660.0
50% $16,821,428.5
75% $27,263,971.0
max $44,211,146.0

Player Basic Regular Playoff
Tm Salary Pos PER PER
1 Russell Westbrook LAL $44,211,146 PG 15.0 NaN
2 Damian Lillard POR $39,344,900 PG 18.5 NaN
3 Klay Thompson GSW $37,980,720 SG 16.7 14.1
4 Bradley Beal WAS $33,724,200 SG 17.5 NaN
5 CJ McCollum NOP $30,864,198 SG 18.3 15.5
6 Jrue Holiday MIL $30,133,333 PG 19.8 13.8
7 D'Angelo Russell MIN $30,013,500 PG 16.3 8.5
8 De'Aaron Fox SAC $28,103,500 PG 17.4 NaN
9 Kyle Lowry MIA $26,984,128 PG 15.0 7.8
10 Malcolm Brogdon IND $21,700,000 PG 18.0 NaN
11 Mike Conley UTA $21,000,000 PG 17.2 8.2
12 Fred VanVleet TOR $19,675,926 PG 17.3 15.7
13 Bogdan BogdanoviA ATL $18,000,000 SG 15.4 15.6
14 Terry Rozier CHO $17,905,263 SG 17.6 NaN
15 Caris LeVert CLE $17,500,000 SG 15.1 NaN
16 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL $17,142,857 PG 15.1 16.6
17 Markelle Fultz ORL $16,500,000 PG 17.7 NaN
18 Norman Powell LAC $15,517,242 SF-SG 16.3 NaN
19 Derrick Rose NYK $13,445,120 PG 16.9 NaN
20 Josh Hart POR $12,000,000 SG-SF 16.1 NaN
21 Anthony Edwards MIN $10,245,480 SG 16.5 17.8
22 De'Anthony Melton MEM $8,805,976 SG 15.2 8.5
23 LaMelo Ball CHO $8,231,760 PG 19.7 NaN
24 Darius Garland CLE $7,040,880 PG 19.0 NaN
25 Hamidou Diallo DET $5,200,000 SG 15.7 NaN
26 Tyrese Haliburton IND $4,023,600 SG-PG 18.2 NaN
27 Tyler Herro MIA $4,004,280 SG 16.2 12.6
28 Anfernee Simons POR $3,938,818 SG 15.3 NaN
29 Tyrese Maxey PHI $2,602,920 PG 16.2 16.9
30 Victor Oladipo MIA $2,389,641 SG 16.8 11.5
31 Jordan Poole GSW $2,161,440 SG 16.1 18.8
32 Jalen Brunson DAL $1,802,057 PG 17.1 20.1

3. 例行賽PER>20

這個區間就是球星和巨星級別

中位數是2176萬

第三個四分位是3142萬

大部分人都符合自己的身價

比較便宜的 Luka Doncic/Ja Morant/Trae Young/Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

明年開始也都是2800萬up

裡面只有一個便宜的打工仔Dejounte Murray明年還繼續領小於2000萬的合約

目前被換到老鷹跟另外一個明星後衛Trae Young組成雙槍

https://www.ptt.cc/NBA/M.1644635386.A.9EA

Count: 11
min $5,495,532.0
25% $9,888,875.5
50% $28,103,500.0
75% $33,283,400.0
max $45,780,966.0
Player Basic Regular Playoff
Tm Salary Pos PER PER
1 Stephen Curry GSW $45,780,966 PG 21.4 24.4
2 James Harden NaN $44,310,840 PG-SG 20.9 16.8
3 Kyrie Irving BRK $34,916,200 PG 21.4 19.2
4 Devin Booker PHO $31,650,600 SG 21.3 18.0
5 Chris Paul PHO $30,800,000 PG 20.8 22.8
6 Donovan Mitchell UTA $28,103,500 SG 21.6 19.0
7 Dejounte Murray SAS $15,428,880 PG 22.3 NaN
8 Luka Doncic DAL $10,174,391 PG 25.1 28.6
9 Ja Morant MEM $9,603,360 PG 24.4 24.3
10 Trae Young ATL $8,326,471 PG 25.4 5.3
11 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC $5,495,532 PG 20.9 NaN
　　　

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感謝，已刊誤 標題只是覺得有趣，並不是誰的粉 大家可以討論一下 誰是溢價的，誰CP值很高

鬍子被下面這個網址漏掉，沒爬到 已手工補上數據