[討論] 空運、晶圓與可能的中國暴走

之前聊過台灣在東亞海運上的樞紐地位，今天來聊聊航空與晶圓產業以及未來中國暴走（俄羅斯已經暴走了）的對應思考吧！

這次我是直接引用我自己在某個副業中提出的報告，在把敏感的部份及牽扯到版權的部份刪除之後，放來這裡分享；所以後面大部分都是我的台式英語，我也懶得再改寫成中文，就請各位包含見諒。

關於航空貨運的部份：

From following web site:
https://aci.aero/2023/04/05/international-travel-returns-top-10-busiest-airports-in-the-world-revealed/

https://reurl.cc/OvoWD7

If we check international freight:

https://i.imgur.com/ZSvnjoT.png

In top 10, APAC has 6 (HKG, ICN, PVG, TPE, NRT, SIN), North America has 2 (ANC,MIA), EU has 1 (FRA), Middle East, Indian Subcontinent and Africa (MEISA) has 1(DOH).

ANC is mainly for shipments from/to APAC (including as transit). MIA is mainly for shipments from/to EU, LAC and MEISA. So we can see how busy the air traffic is between US and APAC.

If domestic volumes are added, here is the top 10; and APAC has 5 (HKG, PVG, ICN, TPE, NRT), North America has 5 (MEM, ANC, SDF, MIA, LAX), too. None of them is from EU and MEISA.

https://i.imgur.com/gatdUqe.png

MEM is main hub for FedEx. Meanwhile, SDF is main hub for UPS. Comparing with2021, all airports are losing volumes in international shipments. If we check total volumes, only SDF has growth from 2021 to 2022. I believe it's contributed by UPS.

If we compare with volume in 2019, Only China and Germany got hit because European Union has solid connection at business with China. If China got hit, Germany, as key member in EU, would be impacted negatively, too. All other APAC countries and MEISA got growth. United States lost volumes from MEM but gained from ANC, SDF, MIA and LAX, so US is still on positive side.

再來是晶圓產業：

Basically, chips are shipped via air freight, so FedEx, United Parcel Service (UPS), DHL, All Nippon Airways (ANA), EVA Air (EVA) and Korea Air Lines (KAL) dominates the market.

1. Global chips made from countries until the end of 2019:

Above 45 nm (legacy)
United States: 9%
China: 23%
Taiwan: 31%
South Korea: 10%
Japan: 13%
Europe (including EU and non-EU): 6%
Others (including Russia, India, Singapore, Thailand, North Korea and so on):7%

28-45 nm
United States: 6%
China: 19%
Taiwan: 47%
South Korea: 6%
Japan: 5%
Europe: 4%
Others: 13%

10-22 nm
United States: 43%
China: 3%
Taiwan: 28%
South Korea: 5%
Japan: 0%
Europe: 12%
Others: 9%

Below 10nm (advanced)
United States: 0%
China: 0%
Taiwan: 92%
South Korea: 8%
Japan: 0%
Europe: 0%
Others: 0%

2. Foundry share until April 2023 (Total: 27.3 billion USD):

TSMC (Taiwan): 60.1%
Samsung (South Korea): 12.4%
Global Foundry (United States): 6.6%
UMC (Taiwan): 6.4%
SMIC (China): 5.3%
Others (including Intel, Texas Instrument, Sony, Panasonic and so on): 9.2%

3. Countries and companies producing materials and instruments for semiconductor industry:

Divided by countries and regions:
Japan: 48%
Taiwan: 16%
South Korea: 13%
Middle East, Indian subcontinent, Africa: 10%
United States: 9%
China: 3%
Others (including Russia, South East Asia, South America and so on): 1%

Divided by companies and corporations:
Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. (Japan): 29%
SUMCO (Silicon United Manufacturing Corporation and Sumitomo Mitsubishi Silicon Corporation) Corp. (Japan): 22%
GlobalWafers (Taiwan): 20%
Siltronic AG (Germany): 15%
SK (Sunkyong) Siltron (South Korea): 10%
Others (including ASML, Siemens, Nikon and so on): 4%

4. Ranking of chip design (fabless) companies until the end of 2022:

Qualcomm (United States): 23.2%
Broadcom Inc. (United States): 20.9%
Nvidia (United States): 17.5%
AMD (United States): 16.5%
MediaTek (Taiwan): 10.2%
Marvell Technology (United States): 4.3%
Novatek Microelectronics (Taiwan): 2.1%
Realtek Semiconductor (Taiwan): 2.0%
Cirrus Logic (United States): 1.7%
Will Semiconductor (China): 1.6%

從這裡，各位看倌應該都發現了，在之前介紹的海運之外，整個東亞目前基本上已經掌握全球科技與經濟的咽喉。在上述的狀態之下，因為晶圓等高科技產品基本上都是依賴空運，而全球前十大國際空運機場中，亞洲就直接佔掉六個，美國佔掉兩個，歐洲只有一個。不論怎麼看，歐洲對國際的影響力實際上是明顯在衰退的狀態。

如果算進去國內運輸的前十名機場，那變成亞洲佔五個，美國再佔五個，而安哥拉治國際機場，基本上可以直接視為東亞的航路轉運入口，等於說東亞出事全球重傷。

更不要說目前各國需要的先進晶片，基本上都是靠台日韓三國跟美國在養。

當我可以放出這份報告時，美國政府想當然爾有能力自力得到類似的結論。

而在中國經濟逐漸衰退，全球一樣進入蕭條之下，中國在還有殘存國力之下窮兵黷武，甚至不計成本發動高損失的戰爭，來保衛習近平個人利益也是非常可以預料的發展。

美國現在在俄羅斯暴走之下，還要面對未來高機率的中國暴走，自然跟過去不一樣，必須讓亞太盟國得到充分的軍事資源來嚇阻，甚至擊退意圖侵略的中國解放軍。

另外，雖然中國動用核子武器的機率不高，但是美國的核保護傘必須非常堅定；否則會看到亞太盟邦不理會歐美的壓力，直接建立自己的核反擊能量。這樣之下，會直接削弱美國的美元優勢，這也是美國不樂見的演進。

另外，附加上一個關於M10 MPF的影片：

https://youtu.be/VJQp5wQSFsY

這個影片有說到美軍在烏俄戰爭及可能的中國暴走之下，軍事發展的變化。

而在中國的科技進化之下，A-10已經無法對應未來在中國軍事暴走之下運作。必須要有雖然無法當矛頭，但是可以提供即時強大支援直射火力的M10來讓美軍輕步兵有自己的直屬「戰場都更火力」。這個是在目前M1A2/A3幾乎都在裝甲單位之下，步兵（含陸戰隊）在海外及時部署時非常需要的裝備。也就是說，從過去大家賺大錢，已經進入在可控損失之下，壓抑中國讓東亞盡量能保持攸關全球的產品輸出及高科技相關國際貿易。

至於影片中的M10運用，相信下過步兵營基地的應該很熟悉，就是把M10當作後方火力支援，而不是伴隨步兵衝鋒。

在我服役時，就是步兵師戰車連主要的任務，只是美國是更充足的M10數量及火力支援。台灣當然不可能馬上會有M10，但是跟著相同的思維，砲貓的需求就會非常明確跟急迫。

別忘了，對戰場上的我方及敵方，這種直射戰車砲火力，在心理上有著非常大的影響。

週末嘴砲結束。

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