Re: [討論] 法國電價已經調漲

※ 引述《floz (醉)》之銘言：
: 來來來~~
: 要講法國電價問題是吧
: 那我們就簡單聊一聊
: 法國目前最大的問題是在於所有的核電廠只有一半左右的反應爐能用
: 為什麼會這樣呢?核電廠這麼不可靠嗎!?

是的

核電廠就是這麼不可靠

法國核電廠三不五時就出現安全問題

一出問題就是躺在那邊

尤其是焊接相關問題

核電廠這方面很糟糕

而別人漏沒關係

核電廠漏會出大事

所以妥善率真的很糟糕

: 不是~法國遇到的問題是新的不給蓋，舊的一直用
: 法國的核能設施大多建於1980年代，數十年來缺乏投資；

錯了

法國不是沒有投資新的核電廠

是法國的新核電廠相當慘烈

悲慘的狀況可能只比核四好一點點

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plant

簡單引述維基

Construction on a new reactor, Flamanville 3, began on 4 December 2007.[6]

法國人在2007年年底開始建設他們的新反應爐

The new unit is an Areva European Pressurized Reactor type and is planned to
have a nameplate capacity of 1,650 MWe.

一個全新設計的歐洲壓水式反應爐 EPR

EPR預計發電能力是1650MW

（核四的ABWR是1350MW）

EDF estimated the cost at €3.3 billion[6] and stated it would start commercial operations in 2012, after
construction lasting 54 months.[7]

原本預計33億歐元

工期54個月

預計2012年完工

In May 2009, professor Stephen Thomas reported that after 18 months of
construction, and after a series of quality control problems, the project is
"more than 20 percent over budget and EDF is struggling to keep it on
schedule".[51]

2009年五月 開工18個月之後

開始吵要追加 大概會追加20％

In August 2010, the regulator, ASN, reported further welding problems on the
secondary containment steel liner.[96] The same month, EDF announced that
costs had increased 50% to €5 billion, and commissioning was delayed by
about two years to 2014.[96]

2010年八月 EDF說成本上升50％到50億歐元 工期延長兩年到2014年

In July 2011, EDF announced that the estimated costs had escalated to €6
billion, and that completion of construction was delayed to 2016.[97]

2011年七月 EDF說成本上升到60億歐元 工期再延長兩年到2016年

In December 2012, EDF announced that the estimated costs had escalated to €
8.5 billion.

2012年十二月 EDF說成本上升到85億歐元（還記得原始預算33億歐元？）

In November 2014, EDF announced that completion of construction was delayed
to 2017, due to delays in component delivery by Areva

2014年11月 EDF宣布工期延到2017（還記得原本預定2012年完工？）

In April 2015, Areva informed the French nuclear regulator ASN that anomalieshad been detected in the reactor vessel steel, causing "lower than expected
mechanical toughness values". Further tests are underway.[102] In July 2015
The Daily Telegraph reported that Areva had been aware of this problem since
2006.[103] In June 2015, multiple faults in cooling system safety valves werediscovered by ASN.[104] In September 2015, EDF announced that the estimated
costs had escalated to €10.5 billion, and the start-up of the reactor was
delayed to the fourth quarter of 2018

這也包那也包 2015年九月 EDF說成本上升到105億歐元 工期沿到2018
（還記得原本工期54個月等於四年多？）

The discovery of quality deviations in the welding led to a further revision
of the schedule in July 2018. Fuel loading was delayed until the end of 2019,and the cost estimate was increased from €10.5 billion to €10.9 billion

2018年七月 成本上升到109億歐元

In June 2019, nuclear regulator ASN determined that eight welds in steam
transfer pipes passing through the two wall containment, that EDF had hoped
to repair after startup, must be repaired before the reactor is
commissioned.[111][112] By then, estimated costs were €11 billion

2019年六月 110億歐元

In October 2019, EDF announced that because of this issue costs would
increase to €12.4 billion and that fuel loading would be delayed until the
end of 2022.[113][114]

2019年十月 成本上升到124億歐元 2022再來裝填燃料棒

Pierre Moscovici, president of the Court of Audit,
gave a statement on 9 July 2020 concerning the release of the report on the
delay costs of the Flamanville 3. The report of the Court of Audit revealed
that the costs could reach €19.1 billion instead of €12.4 billion when
taking into account the additional charges due to the delay in
construction.[115]

法國審計單位說成本是191億歐元 不是124億歐元

In January 2022, it was announced that more time was needed for the repair offaulty welds and the solving of other issues. According to the revised
schedule fuel loading is to take place in mid 2023. The total cost estimate
by EDF was increased to €12.7 billion.[5][116][113]

2022年一月 EDF說成本上升到127億歐元 裝燃料（不是完工）退到2023年

好

回憶一下

這個反應爐2007年開工 預定2012年完工 預算33億

然後這個反應爐2007年開工 目前預定2023年裝燃料棒（不代表完工）

成本127億歐元

: 專業人才因此不斷離職或退休，法國電力公司失去技術傳承和發展能力，
: 無論是維護現有的發電廠、或加蓋新廠來取代舊廠，都力有未逮。

所謂專業人才就是這樣嗎？

一個核電廠超支三倍多

工期延長超過十年？

別鬧了

法國人不是沒有給核電機會

是核電完全不爭氣

: 法國能源智庫négaWatt專家馬力尼亞齊（Yves Marignac）指出，
: 法國電力公司延遲核電廠系統的投資和改造，是受到法國政府默許的，
: 而延誤越多，能力喪失也就越多，技術問題不斷累積，在雪球效應之下，
: 原本的小問題就演變成重大危機。
: 看不懂嗎~

懂了嗎？

: 就是台灣核二核三繼續用，核四不給用一樣

核四根本沒有完工

連設計都沒有完成

怎麼用？

: 等到那天如果老舊的核二核三出問題了.....
: 反核人士又要跑出來說核電不可靠了~~

事實

: 那法國面對現在俄烏危機造成的能源問題
: 又提出了什麼解方呢?
: 日前法國總統馬克宏（Emmanuel Macron）宣布，法國將復興核電產業，
: 更準備著手興建約14座核子反應爐。
: 馬克宏形容此舉是為了達成法國於2050年邁向碳中和，並降低對石化燃料依賴
: 等永續目標的重要里程碑。
: 法國預計在近10年內將建造至少6座反應爐，營運則交由法國電力公司（EDF）負責。
: 恩...要講法國，那結論只會是
: 新的核電廠蓋太晚造成的

法國

一個從戴高樂以來的核電強權

是世界上少數可以自行製造核能電廠

核子動力潛艦

核子動力飛彈潛艦

核子動力航空母艦的強大原子力強權

然後表現成這樣

面對未來的挑戰

法國是決定將核能從75％降到50％

就算核電產官學拼命反抗

也只能延緩這個過程

雖然成功爭取到蓋新爐

但新爐也無法完全取代舊爐

這才是法國真正的面貌

而不是如你等擁核幻想的一樣

以為法國核電前景多光明

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Macron-announces-French-nuclear-renaissance

https://reurl.cc/q5Rv0p

In June 2014, his government announced nuclear capacity would be capped at
the current level of 63.2 GWe and be limited to 50% of France's total output
by 2025. The French Energy Transition for Green Growth Law, adopted in August2015, did not call for the shutdown of any currently operating power
reactors, but it meant EDF would have to close older reactors in order to
bring new ones online. However, under a draft energy and climate bill
presented in May 2019, France will now delay its planned reduction in the
share of nuclear power in its electricity mix to 50% from the current 2025
target to 2035.

這是法國核電產官學近年最大勝利

成功將砍掉三分之一核電的死線往後延十年

可喜可賀

可喜可賀

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